The Northern Vibe Project
An independent effort to make Canadian federal politics easier to follow, for everyone, not just political scientists.
It brings together three things:
- The Platform at northernvibe.ca, where you can explore how public opinion translates into seats in the House of Commons.
- The Publication, where we tell the stories behind the numbers in The 343 and Field Notes.
- Collaborations: partner projects that extend the work beyond our own tools.
Northern Vibe also makes it easy to reach your representative. Find your riding on the map to see past election results, census demographics, local news, and your MP's contact information.
Our goal: to make political information more accessible to every Canadian.
By the numbers
The Platform
The interactive tools at northernvibe.ca. Everything below is live and free to explore.
Simulation Map
Every one of Canada's 343 ridings gets its own projection. Drag a scenario slider and watch seats shift in real time.
Open the map →Parliament
See how 343 seats divide across parties and provinces under any scenario. Explore the hemicycle, which ridings are most competitive, what flipped from today, and how the Cabinet would be affected.
View Parliament →Accountability
Thousands of Canadian political headlines are read and scored daily. Watch the media narrative shift and see how it moves the numbers.
View accountability →Issues Tracker
What do Canadians actually care about? Weekly Nanos/CTV polling — plus Angus Reid and Environics — tracks which issues are rising or falling in the public mind: cost of living, the economy, healthcare, and Canada-US relations.
Track the issues →Forecast
Economic indicators feed a Bayesian model that projects party support 1, 3, and 6 months out, with calibrated uncertainty bands.
View the forecast →Polls
A house-effect-corrected rolling average of every published national and regional poll, updated automatically as new surveys are released.
View the polls →The Publication
The stories behind the numbers, in two ongoing series.
The 343
A riding-by-riding tour of the country, one dispatch at a time, digging into the local dynamics, history, and demographics behind each of Canada's 343 seats.
Introducing The 343: Halifax, NS
Where the riding-by-riding series begins, one seat at a time.
Read →Field Notes
Longer-form analysis on the forces shaping the numbers: polling shifts, the economy, the media narrative, and what the model is picking up week to week.
Who you vote for may depend on whether you own your home
The sharpest divide in Canadian electoral politics might be your mortgage.
Read →The Team
Matt Hickey
Founder and Data Analyst · Halifax, NS
Built Northern Vibe out of frustration with election coverage that reduces complex riding-by-riding dynamics to a single national poll number. The map tells a richer story.
PhD Biomedical Engineering, University of British Columbia
Caitlin Griffiths
Co-Founder and Political Analyst · Halifax, NS
Passionate about how politics shapes people's lives, and making that story easier to follow. Digs into riding-level dynamics and local context so readers can better understand the nuances.
International Development and Social Anthropology, Dalhousie University
Questions about the methodology? Media inquiries? Just want to talk Canadian politics?
We'd love to hear from you. See our FAQ for common questions.
Support Northern Vibe
Northern Vibe is independent and free. Subscribe to the newsletter, make a donation, or just spread the word.
Will always be ad-free.
Coming Soon
Features we're actively building. Check back soon.
Teaser liveVoteLab lets you experiment with how different voting systems, like proportional representation, ranked-choice, and mixed-member, would reshape real Canadian election results. A partner project with Springtide and Fair Voting BC.
Full French Language Support
In progressNavigation, riding cards, and all short UI text are now available in French. Switch using the FR / EN toggle in the top navigation bar. Full French translation of long-form content (methodology, forecasting explanations, and issue descriptions) is coming soon.