BCSAFEBC

Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke

Stephanie McLean

Liberal

stephanie.mclean@parl.gc.ca 613-996-2625

Civic Tools

A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.

Projected vote share — current polls

Liberal49%±6%·>99% win

NDP25%±5%·<1% win

Conservative20%±5%·<1% win

Green5%±5%·<1% win

People's2%±2%·<1% win

Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win

Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations

Riding snapshot

Public sector

36.0%

#32 of 343top 10%

Median income

$53,450

Renters

32.1%

Under 35

15.4%

Top industry

Public sector · 36.0%

Area

975 km²

GE45 result

Margin

20.6%

Competitive

79.4/100

Key issues

Seniors & healthcare28.8% aged 65+

Demographics · 2021 Census

Key Stats

#152

Median income

$53,450

#184

Avg 2BR rent

$1460/mo

2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025

#T303

Unemployment

6.4%

bottom 25%

#111

Shelter stressed

23.0%

#124

Renters

32.1%

Age distribution

Under 35

15.4%#T157

35–64

55.8%

65+

28.8%#156

Housing tenure

Renters

32.1%#124

Owners

67.7%

Education attainment (ages 25–64)

No diploma

8.0%#T221

High school

27.8%#102

College/trades

34.4%#179

Bachelor's

19.6%#T163

Postgrad

10.2%#154

People & Economy

#154

French knowledge

8.9%

#177

Immigrants

16.1%

#191

Recent arrivals

2.4%

Immigrants arrived 2016–21

#181

Visible minority

14.8%

#84

Indigenous

6.0%

top 25%

#T214

Govt. transfers

11.4%

#T105

Self-employed

15.8%

Industry of employment

Public sector36.0%

Trades & transport17.5%

Finance & prof10.7%

Manufacturing3.9%

Resources1.3%

Infrastructure & environment

Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.

Very high

Index: 66.4 / 100

Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.

Low

Index: 0 (avg = 100)

Crime severityⓘStatsCan Crime Severity Index for the riding's CMA, rescaled so Canada's national average = 100. Categories: Below average < 80 · Average 80–110 · Elevated 110–140 · High severity 140+.

Average

Index: 104.3 (avg = 100)

Federal Spending

Avg federal spending

$0.9M/yr

Avg CCBF allocation

$2.6M/yr

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