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ONLEANOntario
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes
J
Jamie Schmale
Conservative
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Conservative48%±5%·85% win
Liberal41%±5%·15% win
NDP6%±5%·<1% win
Green3%±3%·<1% win
People's2%±3%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Construction
14.2%
#3 of 343top 5%
Median income
$51,650
Renters
14.7%
Under 35
9.1%
Top industry
Public sector · 25.6%
Area
10,380 km²
GE45 result
Margin
17.9%
Competitive
82.1/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare40.7% aged 65+
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#T179
Median income
$51,650
#237
Avg 2BR rent
$1277/mo
2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T129
Unemployment
11.0%
#204
Shelter stressed
17.8%
#329
Renters
14.7%
bottom 5%Age distribution
Under 35
9.1%#333
35–64
50.2%
65+
40.7%#5
Housing tenure
Renters
14.7%#329
Owners
85.3%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
10.7%#145
High school
31.2%#39
College/trades
40.9%#77
Bachelor's
12.5%#285
Postgrad
4.7%#290
People & Economy
#T285
French knowledge
4.8%
bottom 25%#247
Immigrants
8.2%
#T333
Recent arrivals
0.3%
bottom 5%Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#301
Visible minority
3.2%
bottom 25%#162
Indigenous
3.0%
#T71
Govt. transfers
16.6%
top 25%#47
Self-employed
18.8%
top 25%Industry of employment
Public sector25.6%
Trades & transport25.3%
Finance & prof8.4%
Manufacturing6.7%
Resources3.8%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
ModerateIndex: 27.2 / 100
Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.
LowIndex: 1 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$322.3M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$5.0M/yr
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