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QCSAFEQuebec
Hull—Aylmer
G
Greg Fergus
Liberal
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Liberal65%±7%·>99% win
Bloc Québécois12%±5%·<1% win
Conservative10%±5%·<1% win
NDP7%±5%·<1% win
Green4%±4%·<1% win
People's2%±2%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Public sector
48.8%
#3 of 343top 5%
Median income
$54,450
Renters
48.4%
Under 35
21.3%
Top industry
Public sector · 48.8%
Area
78 km²
GE45 result
Margin
45.2%
Competitive
54.8/100
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#T131
Median income
$54,450
#280
Avg 2BR rent
$1127/mo
bottom 25%2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T160
Unemployment
10.3%
#190
Shelter stressed
18.5%
#49
Renters
48.4%
top 25%Age distribution
Under 35
21.3%#58
35–64
54.8%
65+
23.9%#T255
Housing tenure
Renters
48.4%#49
Owners
51.6%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
10.0%#T163
High school
16.6%#289
College/trades
30.0%#242
Bachelor's
24.4%#113
Postgrad
19.1%#47
People & Economy
#68
French knowledge
85.6%
top 25%#161
Immigrants
19.4%
#108
Recent arrivals
4.8%
Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#148
Visible minority
24.2%
#128
Indigenous
4.1%
#T185
Govt. transfers
12.5%
#293
Self-employed
10.2%
bottom 25%Industry of employment
Public sector48.8%
Trades & transport10.8%
Finance & prof9.0%
Manufacturing2.2%
Resources0.5%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
Very highIndex: 56.6 / 100
Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.
LowIndex: 1 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$0.7M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$0.2M/yr
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