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ONLEANOntario
Humber River—Black Creek
J
Judy Sgro
Liberal
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Liberal60%±6%·>99% win
Conservative27%±5%·<1% win
NDP8%±6%·<1% win
Green3%±3%·<1% win
People's3%±3%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Unemployment
17.8%
#8 of 343top 5%
Median income
$37,240
Renters
52.0%
Under 35
13.8%
Top industry
Public sector · 18.9%
Area
32 km²
GE45 result
Margin
19.8%
Competitive
80.2/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare26.7% aged 65+
Immigration & settlement56.4% immigrants
Employment17.8% unemployment
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#343
Median income
$37,240
bottom 5%#T148
Avg 2BR rent
$1560/mo
2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T8
Unemployment
17.8%
top 5%#49
Shelter stressed
28.8%
top 25%#39
Renters
52.0%
top 25%Age distribution
Under 35
13.8%#205
35–64
59.6%
65+
26.7%#195
Housing tenure
Renters
52.0%#39
Owners
48.0%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
20.8%#8
High school
28.9%#T74
College/trades
27.8%#T265
Bachelor's
16.0%#213
Postgrad
6.5%#T230
People & Economy
#330
French knowledge
3.2%
bottom 5%#15
Immigrants
56.4%
top 5%#T25
Recent arrivals
8.0%
top 10%Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#12
Visible minority
78.2%
top 5%#321
Indigenous
0.5%
bottom 10%#16
Govt. transfers
21.4%
top 5%#289
Self-employed
10.4%
bottom 25%Industry of employment
Trades & transport21.0%
Public sector18.9%
Manufacturing16.2%
Finance & prof8.5%
Resources0.4%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
ModerateIndex: 27.2 / 100
Crime severityⓘStatsCan Crime Severity Index for the riding's CMA, rescaled so Canada's national average = 100. Categories: Below average < 80 · Average 80–110 · Elevated 110–140 · High severity 140+.
Below averageIndex: 78.4 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$44.7M/yr
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