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ABSAFEPrairies
Lethbridge
R
Rachael Thomas
Conservative
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Conservative54%±6%·>99% win
Liberal35%±5%·<1% win
NDP6%±5%·<1% win
Green3%±3%·<1% win
People's2%±2%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Under 35
22.8%
#42 of 343top 25%
Median income
$52,450
Renters
29.6%
Top industry
Public sector · 29.6%
Area
3,028 km²
GE45 result
Margin
28.4%
Competitive
71.6/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare25.8% aged 65+
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#T168
Median income
$52,450
#T226
Avg 2BR rent
$1322/mo
2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T226
Unemployment
8.8%
#173
Shelter stressed
19.6%
#150
Renters
29.6%
Age distribution
Under 35
22.8%#42
35–64
51.4%
65+
25.8%#213
Housing tenure
Renters
29.6%#150
Owners
70.4%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
11.2%#132
High school
28.6%#85
College/trades
34.9%#172
Bachelor's
18.0%#188
Postgrad
7.4%#T207
People & Economy
#295
French knowledge
4.6%
bottom 25%#185
Immigrants
14.4%
#T165
Recent arrivals
3.0%
Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#188
Visible minority
13.9%
#83
Indigenous
6.0%
top 25%#T182
Govt. transfers
12.6%
#T170
Self-employed
13.7%
Industry of employment
Public sector29.6%
Trades & transport19.7%
Manufacturing8.3%
Finance & prof7.6%
Resources6.7%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
ModerateIndex: 25.7 / 100
Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.
LowIndex: 0 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$4.7M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$5.8M/yr
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