ONTOSSUPOntario

Nipissing—Timiskaming

Pauline Rochefort

Liberal

pauline.rochefort@parl.gc.ca 613-995-6255

Civic Tools

A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.

Projected vote share — current polls

Liberal52%±6%·99% win

Conservative35%±6%·1% win

NDP8%±6%·<1% win

Green3%±4%·<1% win

People's2%±3%·<1% win

Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win

Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations

Riding snapshot

Public sector

33.3%

#54 of 343top 25%

Median income

$49,480

Renters

30.1%

Under 35

15.1%

Top industry

Public sector · 33.3%

Area

19,212 km²

GE45 result

Margin

2.6%

Competitive

97.4/100

Key issues

Seniors & healthcare32.9% aged 65+

Demographics · 2021 Census

Key Stats

#T215

Median income

$49,480

#T134

Avg 2BR rent

$1600/mo

2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025

#T138

Unemployment

10.8%

#199

Shelter stressed

18.1%

#143

Renters

30.1%

Age distribution

Under 35

15.1%#171

35–64

52.0%

65+

32.9%#69

Housing tenure

Renters

30.1%#143

Owners

69.6%

Education attainment (ages 25–64)

No diploma

11.4%#123

High school

25.6%#138

College/trades

43.4%#50

Bachelor's

14.2%#249

Postgrad

5.5%#257

People & Economy

#97

French knowledge

27.0%

#298

Immigrants

4.3%

bottom 25%

#T322

Recent arrivals

0.4%

bottom 10%

Immigrants arrived 2016–21

#303

Visible minority

3.2%

bottom 25%

#41

Indigenous

11.5%

top 25%

#T61

Govt. transfers

17.1%

top 25%

#T205

Self-employed

12.6%

Industry of employment

Public sector33.3%

Trades & transport20.2%

Finance & prof6.8%

Resources6.2%

Manufacturing5.6%

Infrastructure & environment

Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.

Moderate

Index: 23.1 / 100

Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.

Moderate

Index: 16 (avg = 100)

Crime severityⓘStatsCan Crime Severity Index for the riding's CMA, rescaled so Canada's national average = 100. Categories: Below average < 80 · Average 80–110 · Elevated 110–140 · High severity 140+.

Average

Index: 85.2 (avg = 100)

Federal Spending

Avg federal spending

$1.8M/yr

Avg CCBF allocation

$3.2M/yr

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