BCSWINGBC

Saanich—Gulf Islands

Elizabeth May

Green

Civic Tools

A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.

Projected vote share — current polls

Green41%±7%·90% win

Liberal29%±6%·10% win

Conservative17%±6%·<1% win

NDP11%±6%·<1% win

People's2%±2%·<1% win

Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win

Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations

Riding snapshot

65+

43.7%

#1 of 343top 5%

Median income

$59,200

Renters

22.0%

Under 35

9.9%

Top industry

Public sector · 33.2%

Area

1,577 km²

GE45 result

Margin

7.3%

Competitive

92.7/100

Key issues

Seniors & healthcare43.7% aged 65+

Demographics · 2021 Census

Key Stats

#81

Median income

$59,200

top 25%

#91

Avg 2BR rent

$1806/mo

2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025

#T308

Unemployment

6.3%

bottom 25%

#145

Shelter stressed

21.1%

#252

Renters

22.0%

Age distribution

Under 35

9.9%#320

35–64

46.4%

65+

43.7%#1

Housing tenure

Renters

22.0%#252

Owners

77.7%

Education attainment (ages 25–64)

No diploma

4.9%#300

High school

22.9%#178

College/trades

30.9%#224

Bachelor's

25.2%#105

Postgrad

16.0%#70

People & Economy

#151

French knowledge

9.3%

#147

Immigrants

21.8%

#213

Recent arrivals

1.9%

Immigrants arrived 2016–21

#174

Visible minority

16.6%

#123

Indigenous

4.2%

#T201

Govt. transfers

11.7%

#11

Self-employed

22.4%

top 5%

Industry of employment

Public sector33.2%

Trades & transport15.1%

Finance & prof13.0%

Manufacturing3.7%

Resources2.4%

Infrastructure & environment

Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.

Very high

Index: 67.8 / 100

Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.

Low

Index: 0 (avg = 100)

Crime severityⓘStatsCan Crime Severity Index for the riding's CMA, rescaled so Canada's national average = 100. Categories: Below average < 80 · Average 80–110 · Elevated 110–140 · High severity 140+.

Average

Index: 91.2 (avg = 100)

Federal Spending

Avg federal spending

$3.5M/yr

Avg CCBF allocation

$2.1M/yr

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