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ONLEANOntario
York Centre
R
Roman Baber
Conservative
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Conservative46%±5%·60% win
Liberal44%±5%·40% win
NDP5%±5%·<1% win
Green3%±3%·<1% win
People's2%±2%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Transit commuters
30.0%
#14 of 343top 5%
Median income
$50,440
Renters
50.3%
Under 35
13.5%
Top industry
Public sector · 22.9%
Area
37 km²
GE45 result
Margin
12.1%
Competitive
87.9/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare29.0% aged 65+
Immigration & settlement55.5% immigrants
Employment14.1% unemployment
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#201
Median income
$50,440
#58
Avg 2BR rent
$1936/mo
top 25%2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#36
Unemployment
14.1%
top 25%#31
Shelter stressed
30.7%
top 10%#44
Renters
50.3%
top 25%Age distribution
Under 35
13.5%#T215
35–64
57.5%
65+
29.0%#152
Housing tenure
Renters
50.3%#44
Owners
49.8%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
8.7%#204
High school
22.6%#181
College/trades
28.1%#260
Bachelor's
26.9%#86
Postgrad
13.7%#96
People & Economy
#282
French knowledge
4.9%
bottom 25%#19
Immigrants
55.5%
top 10%#12
Recent arrivals
9.4%
top 5%Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#46
Visible minority
52.5%
top 25%#T319
Indigenous
0.5%
bottom 10%#T182
Govt. transfers
12.6%
#120
Self-employed
15.5%
Industry of employment
Public sector22.9%
Trades & transport16.2%
Finance & prof14.9%
Manufacturing10.4%
Resources0.2%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
ModerateIndex: 26.6 / 100
Crime severityⓘStatsCan Crime Severity Index for the riding's CMA, rescaled so Canada's national average = 100. Categories: Below average < 80 · Average 80–110 · Elevated 110–140 · High severity 140+.
Below averageIndex: 76.2 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$0.6M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$6.1M/yr
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