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ONLEANOntario
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J
Jennifer McKelvie
Liberal
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Liberal61%±6%·>99% win
Conservative30%±5%·<1% win
NDP5%±5%·<1% win
Green3%±4%·<1% win
People's2%±2%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Finance & prof
19.5%
#41 of 343top 25%
Median income
$54,300
Renters
16.5%
Under 35
9.3%
Top industry
Public sector · 23.7%
Area
71 km²
GE45 result
Margin
17.2%
Competitive
82.8/100
Key issues
Immigration & settlement41.8% immigrants
Employment13.4% unemployment
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#T135
Median income
$54,300
#55
Avg 2BR rent
$1949/mo
top 25%2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T48
Unemployment
13.4%
top 25%#87
Shelter stressed
24.7%
#T311
Renters
16.5%
bottom 10%Age distribution
Under 35
9.3%#331
35–64
69.1%
65+
21.6%#293
Housing tenure
Renters
16.5%#T311
Owners
83.5%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
7.3%#T241
High school
24.4%#150
College/trades
32.2%#210
Bachelor's
24.9%#109
Postgrad
11.3%#136
People & Economy
#T184
French knowledge
7.5%
#50
Immigrants
41.8%
top 25%#137
Recent arrivals
4.0%
Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#32
Visible minority
64.6%
top 10%#286
Indigenous
1.0%
bottom 25%#T242
Govt. transfers
10.5%
#203
Self-employed
12.6%
Industry of employment
Public sector23.7%
Finance & prof19.5%
Trades & transport15.5%
Manufacturing7.2%
Resources0.4%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
HighIndex: 41.7 / 100
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$4.7M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$6.3M/yr
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