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ONTOSSUPOntario
Newmarket—Aurora
S
Sandra Cobena
Conservative
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Liberal48%±6%·80% win
Conservative42%±6%·21% win
NDP5%±5%·<1% win
Green3%±4%·<1% win
People's2%±2%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Avg 2BR rent
$2010/mo
#42 of 343top 25%
Median income
$58,150
Renters
22.3%
Under 35
10.1%
Top industry
Public sector · 22.3%
Area
57 km²
GE45 result
Margin
3.6%
Competitive
96.4/100
Key issues
Immigration & settlement36.0% immigrants
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#88
Median income
$58,150
#42
Avg 2BR rent
$2010/mo
top 25%2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T84
Unemployment
12.3%
top 25%#53
Shelter stressed
28.2%
top 25%#247
Renters
22.3%
Age distribution
Under 35
10.1%#T312
35–64
66.7%
65+
23.1%#T269
Housing tenure
Renters
22.3%#247
Owners
77.7%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
6.7%#256
High school
20.1%#221
College/trades
30.1%#236
Bachelor's
29.5%#53
Postgrad
13.6%#T98
People & Economy
#177
French knowledge
7.8%
#74
Immigrants
36.0%
top 25%#134
Recent arrivals
4.1%
Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#84
Visible minority
39.1%
top 25%#T284
Indigenous
1.0%
bottom 25%#T271
Govt. transfers
9.3%
bottom 25%#95
Self-employed
16.4%
Industry of employment
Public sector22.3%
Finance & prof18.5%
Trades & transport14.5%
Manufacturing9.5%
Resources0.6%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
HighIndex: 36.6 / 100
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$0.9M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$7.1M/yr
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