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ONSAFEOntario
Beaches—East York
N
Nate Erskine-Smith
Liberal
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Liberal71%±7%·>99% win
Conservative15%±5%·<1% win
NDP9%±5%·<1% win
Green3%±4%·<1% win
People's1%±2%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Pop. density
5777.4/km²
#13 of 343top 5%
Median income
$69,500
Renters
44.2%
Under 35
12.9%
Top industry
Public sector · 25.2%
Area
19 km²
GE45 result
Margin
44.2%
Competitive
55.8/100
Key issues
Employment13.4% unemployment
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#27
Median income
$69,500
top 10%#131
Avg 2BR rent
$1607/mo
2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T48
Unemployment
13.4%
top 25%#T64
Shelter stressed
27.3%
top 25%#65
Renters
44.2%
top 25%Age distribution
Under 35
12.9%#246
35–64
63.2%
65+
23.9%#T253
Housing tenure
Renters
44.2%#65
Owners
55.8%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
6.8%#T252
High school
17.8%#266
College/trades
23.7%#312
Bachelor's
32.1%#37
Postgrad
19.5%#43
People & Economy
#120
French knowledge
12.5%
#101
Immigrants
31.7%
#T109
Recent arrivals
4.8%
Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#T94
Visible minority
36.1%
#T216
Indigenous
1.8%
#T299
Govt. transfers
8.4%
bottom 25%#69
Self-employed
17.6%
top 25%Industry of employment
Public sector25.2%
Finance & prof23.3%
Trades & transport10.1%
Manufacturing4.1%
Resources0.4%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
ModerateIndex: 32.7 / 100
Crime severityⓘStatsCan Crime Severity Index for the riding's CMA, rescaled so Canada's national average = 100. Categories: Below average < 80 · Average 80–110 · Elevated 110–140 · High severity 140+.
Below averageIndex: 61.8 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$0.3M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$7.3M/yr
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