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ABSAFEPrairies
Calgary Shepard
T
Tom Kmiec
Conservative
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Conservative59%±6%·>99% win
Liberal31%±4%·<1% win
NDP5%±5%·<1% win
Green3%±3%·<1% win
People's2%±2%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Avg 2BR rent
$2326/mo
#17 of 343top 5%
Median income
$69,400
Renters
18.4%
Under 35
20.6%
Top industry
Public sector · 23.0%
Area
112 km²
GE45 result
Margin
39.8%
Competitive
60.2/100
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#T28
Median income
$69,400
top 10%#17
Avg 2BR rent
$2326/mo
top 5%2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T186
Unemployment
9.8%
#160
Shelter stressed
20.4%
#T294
Renters
18.4%
bottom 25%Age distribution
Under 35
20.6%#65
35–64
67.7%
65+
11.7%#338
Housing tenure
Renters
18.4%#T294
Owners
81.6%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
4.8%#306
High school
22.6%#187
College/trades
34.6%#176
Bachelor's
27.8%#76
Postgrad
10.2%#149
People & Economy
#T249
French knowledge
5.8%
#121
Immigrants
26.4%
#105
Recent arrivals
4.9%
Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#117
Visible minority
30.5%
#152
Indigenous
3.3%
#T333
Govt. transfers
5.8%
bottom 5%#163
Self-employed
14.0%
Industry of employment
Public sector23.0%
Trades & transport17.9%
Finance & prof14.9%
Manufacturing5.3%
Resources5.3%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
LowIndex: 16.2 / 100
Crime severityⓘStatsCan Crime Severity Index for the riding's CMA, rescaled so Canada's national average = 100. Categories: Below average < 80 · Average 80–110 · Elevated 110–140 · High severity 140+.
AverageIndex: 80.0 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$4.6M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$6.0M/yr
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