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ABSAFEPrairies
Calgary Crowfoot
P
Pat Kelly
Conservative
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Conservative51%±6%·96% win
Liberal39%±5%·4% win
NDP5%±5%·<1% win
Green3%±4%·<1% win
People's2%±3%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Avg 2BR rent
$2255/mo
#19 of 343top 10%
Median income
$66,400
Renters
15.9%
Under 35
13.1%
Top industry
Public sector · 28.5%
Area
73 km²
GE45 result
Margin
21.4%
Competitive
78.6/100
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#35
Median income
$66,400
top 25%#19
Avg 2BR rent
$2255/mo
top 10%2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T106
Unemployment
11.8%
#194
Shelter stressed
18.3%
#319
Renters
15.9%
bottom 10%Age distribution
Under 35
13.1%#T235
35–64
65.6%
65+
21.4%#298
Housing tenure
Renters
15.9%#319
Owners
84.1%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
3.3%#333
High school
16.6%#288
College/trades
27.6%#270
Bachelor's
35.1%#17
Postgrad
17.4%#60
People & Economy
#194
French knowledge
7.2%
#82
Immigrants
33.9%
top 25%#103
Recent arrivals
5.1%
Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#81
Visible minority
40.8%
top 25%#199
Indigenous
2.2%
#T320
Govt. transfers
7.1%
bottom 10%#129
Self-employed
15.1%
Industry of employment
Public sector28.5%
Finance & prof17.4%
Trades & transport11.5%
Resources6.0%
Manufacturing3.2%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
LowIndex: 5.7 / 100
Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.
LowIndex: 1 (avg = 100)
Crime severityⓘStatsCan Crime Severity Index for the riding's CMA, rescaled so Canada's national average = 100. Categories: Below average < 80 · Average 80–110 · Elevated 110–140 · High severity 140+.
AverageIndex: 80.0 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$10.8M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$6.0M/yr
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