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NLSAFEAtlantic
Cape Spear
T
Tom Osborne
Liberal
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Liberal71%±6%·>99% win
Conservative17%±5%·<1% win
NDP7%±5%·<1% win
Green3%±3%·<1% win
People's1%±2%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Retail & service
20.3%
#31 of 343top 10%
Median income
$53,550
Renters
32.9%
Under 35
17.7%
Top industry
Public sector · 34.8%
Area
195 km²
GE45 result
Margin
42.5%
Competitive
57.5/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare26.0% aged 65+
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#T149
Median income
$53,550
#228
Avg 2BR rent
$1320/mo
2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T157
Unemployment
10.4%
#169
Shelter stressed
19.9%
#119
Renters
32.9%
Age distribution
Under 35
17.7%#103
35–64
56.3%
65+
26.0%#T209
Housing tenure
Renters
32.9%#119
Owners
67.1%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
7.2%#246
High school
22.2%#T191
College/trades
42.6%#52
Bachelor's
19.0%#T169
Postgrad
9.0%#177
People & Economy
#T198
French knowledge
6.9%
#314
Immigrants
3.1%
bottom 10%#T262
Recent arrivals
1.0%
bottom 25%Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#286
Visible minority
3.8%
bottom 25%#153
Indigenous
3.3%
#T173
Govt. transfers
13.0%
#331
Self-employed
8.0%
bottom 5%Industry of employment
Public sector34.8%
Trades & transport15.4%
Finance & prof9.8%
Resources3.9%
Manufacturing3.3%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
HighIndex: 35.2 / 100
Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.
LowIndex: 4 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$7.6M/yr
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