ONSAFEOntario

Chatham-Kent—Leamington

Dave Epp

Conservative

Civic Tools

A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.

Projected vote share — current polls

Conservative49%±5%·94% win

Liberal39%±5%·6% win

NDP6%±6%·<1% win

Green3%±4%·<1% win

People's2%±3%·<1% win

Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win

Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations

Riding snapshot

Manufacturing

14.0%

#31 of 343top 10%

Median income

$46,920

Renters

28.4%

Under 35

13.4%

Top industry

Public sector · 22.1%

Area

4,158 km²

GE45 result

Margin

21.6%

Competitive

78.4/100

Key issues

Seniors & healthcare33.9% aged 65+

Demographics · 2021 Census

Key Stats

#265

Median income

$46,920

bottom 25%

#283

Avg 2BR rent

$1111/mo

bottom 25%

2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025

#T148

Unemployment

10.6%

#229

Shelter stressed

16.3%

#T162

Renters

28.4%

Age distribution

Under 35

13.4%#T218

35–64

52.7%

65+

33.9%#58

Housing tenure

Renters

28.4%#T162

Owners

71.5%

Education attainment (ages 25–64)

No diploma

17.8%#27

High school

31.0%#41

College/trades

36.6%#147

Bachelor's

11.0%#313

Postgrad

3.7%#320

People & Economy

#207

French knowledge

6.7%

#205

Immigrants

12.7%

#226

Recent arrivals

1.6%

Immigrants arrived 2016–21

#218

Visible minority

9.5%

#T136

Indigenous

3.9%

#T53

Govt. transfers

17.5%

top 25%

#167

Self-employed

13.8%

Industry of employment

Public sector22.1%

Trades & transport21.7%

Manufacturing14.0%

Resources10.2%

Finance & prof5.6%

Infrastructure & environment

Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.

Very high

Index: 59.9 / 100

Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.

Low

Index: 3 (avg = 100)

Crime severityⓘStatsCan Crime Severity Index for the riding's CMA, rescaled so Canada's national average = 100. Categories: Below average < 80 · Average 80–110 · Elevated 110–140 · High severity 140+.

Average

Index: 93.3 (avg = 100)

Federal Spending

Avg federal spending

$64.2M/yr

Avg CCBF allocation

$7.5M/yr

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