ONSWINGOntario

Thunder Bay—Rainy River

Marcus Powlowski

Liberal

marcus.powlowski@parl.gc.ca 613-992-3061

Civic Tools

A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.

Projected vote share — current polls

Liberal53%±6%·>99% win

Conservative33%±5%·<1% win

NDP9%±6%·<1% win

Green3%±4%·<1% win

People's2%±3%·<1% win

Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win

Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations

Riding snapshot

Public sector

34.8%

#40 of 343top 25%

Median income

$50,520

Renters

24.2%

Under 35

15.3%

Top industry

Public sector · 34.8%

Area

40,066 km²

GE45 result

Margin

5.6%

Competitive

94.4/100

Key issues

Seniors & healthcare31.7% aged 65+

Climate & wildfire riskWildfire index 111 (Canada avg 100)

Demographics · 2021 Census

Key Stats

#200

Median income

$50,520

#289

Avg 2BR rent

$1085/mo

bottom 25%

2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025

#T155

Unemployment

10.5%

#281

Shelter stressed

13.5%

bottom 25%

#223

Renters

24.2%

Age distribution

Under 35

15.3%#161

35–64

53.0%

65+

31.7%#93

Housing tenure

Renters

24.2%#223

Owners

74.1%

Education attainment (ages 25–64)

No diploma

11.8%#106

High school

28.8%#78

College/trades

39.4%#107

Bachelor's

14.2%#248

Postgrad

5.7%#250

People & Economy

#257

French knowledge

5.5%

#272

Immigrants

6.5%

bottom 25%

#T287

Recent arrivals

0.7%

bottom 25%

Immigrants arrived 2016–21

#275

Visible minority

4.8%

bottom 25%

#21

Indigenous

18.3%

top 10%

#T92

Govt. transfers

16.0%

#294

Self-employed

10.1%

bottom 25%

Industry of employment

Public sector34.8%

Trades & transport20.6%

Finance & prof6.8%

Resources6.2%

Manufacturing4.0%

Infrastructure & environment

Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.

Moderate

Index: 29.6 / 100

Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.

High

Index: 111 (avg = 100)

Crime severityⓘStatsCan Crime Severity Index for the riding's CMA, rescaled so Canada's national average = 100. Categories: Below average < 80 · Average 80–110 · Elevated 110–140 · High severity 140+.

Below average

Index: 76.2 (avg = 100)

Federal Spending

Avg federal spending

$4.7M/yr

Avg CCBF allocation

$3.3M/yr

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