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ABSAFEPrairies
Grande Prairie
C
Chris Warkentin
Conservative
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Conservative73%±6%·>99% win
Liberal16%±4%·<1% win
NDP6%±5%·<1% win
People's2%±3%·<1% win
Green2%±3%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Resource sector
16.4%
#13 of 343top 5%
Median income
$59,900
Renters
25.3%
Under 35
23.0%
Top industry
Public sector · 20.4%
Area
56,997 km²
GE45 result
Margin
69.9%
Competitive
30.1/100
Key issues
Energy & natural resources16.4% resource sector
Climate & wildfire riskWildfire index 302 (Canada avg 100)
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#72
Median income
$59,900
top 25%#130
Avg 2BR rent
$1611/mo
2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T119
Unemployment
11.3%
#168
Shelter stressed
20.0%
#209
Renters
25.3%
Age distribution
Under 35
23.0%#38
35–64
59.4%
65+
17.6%#328
Housing tenure
Renters
25.3%#209
Owners
73.4%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
15.3%#53
High school
31.3%#37
College/trades
37.3%#145
Bachelor's
12.8%#279
Postgrad
3.3%#335
People & Economy
#T239
French knowledge
6.1%
#234
Immigrants
9.7%
#T177
Recent arrivals
2.6%
Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#212
Visible minority
10.3%
#38
Indigenous
12.4%
top 25%#T296
Govt. transfers
8.5%
bottom 25%#T79
Self-employed
17.1%
top 25%Industry of employment
Trades & transport24.7%
Public sector20.4%
Resources16.4%
Finance & prof6.9%
Manufacturing4.5%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
LowIndex: 12.8 / 100
Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.
ExtremeIndex: 302 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$3.2M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$4.6M/yr
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