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ONSWINGOntario
Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk
G
Gaétan Malette
Conservative
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Conservative42%±6%·51% win
Liberal42%±6%·49% win
NDP11%±6%·<1% win
Green3%±3%·<1% win
People's3%±3%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Resource sector
15.3%
#15 of 343top 5%
Median income
$52,100
Renters
29.6%
Under 35
17.8%
Top industry
Public sector · 32.8%
Area
276,431 km²
GE45 result
Margin
9.9%
Competitive
90.1/100
Key issues
Energy & natural resources15.3% resource sector
Seniors & healthcare28.9% aged 65+
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#174
Median income
$52,100
#312
Avg 2BR rent
$1005/mo
bottom 10%2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T209
Unemployment
9.3%
#259
Shelter stressed
14.5%
bottom 25%#T147
Renters
29.6%
Age distribution
Under 35
17.8%#102
35–64
53.3%
65+
28.9%#154
Housing tenure
Renters
29.6%#T147
Owners
67.9%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
15.8%#46
High school
28.8%#80
College/trades
41.8%#66
Bachelor's
10.0%#328
Postgrad
3.7%#321
People & Economy
#85
French knowledge
50.4%
top 25%#316
Immigrants
3.0%
bottom 10%#305
Recent arrivals
0.5%
bottom 25%Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#297
Visible minority
3.3%
bottom 25%#17
Indigenous
19.8%
top 5%#T88
Govt. transfers
16.1%
#322
Self-employed
8.6%
bottom 10%Industry of employment
Public sector32.8%
Trades & transport22.5%
Resources15.3%
Finance & prof5.3%
Manufacturing5.1%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
ModerateIndex: 26.0 / 100
Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.
HighIndex: 58 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$5.6M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$3.1M/yr
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