ONTOSSUPOntario

Lanark—Frontenac

Scott Reid

Conservative

Civic Tools

A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.

Projected vote share — current polls

Liberal47%±6%·75% win

Conservative42%±5%·25% win

NDP5%±5%·<1% win

Green3%±4%·<1% win

People's2%±2%·<1% win

Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win

Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations

Riding snapshot

Construction

12.4%

#12 of 343top 5%

Median income

$53,950

Renters

18.1%

Under 35

11.5%

Top industry

Public sector · 30.9%

Area

7,025 km²

GE45 result

Margin

4.8%

Competitive

95.2/100

Key issues

Seniors & healthcare35.7% aged 65+

Demographics · 2021 Census

Key Stats

#T142

Median income

$53,950

#224

Avg 2BR rent

$1330/mo

2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025

#T226

Unemployment

8.8%

#237

Shelter stressed

15.9%

#298

Renters

18.1%

bottom 25%

Age distribution

Under 35

11.5%#278

35–64

52.8%

65+

35.7%#39

Housing tenure

Renters

18.1%#298

Owners

81.9%

Education attainment (ages 25–64)

No diploma

8.4%#212

High school

28.5%#86

College/trades

42.5%#54

Bachelor's

14.8%#231

Postgrad

5.8%#249

People & Economy

#115

French knowledge

12.9%

#271

Immigrants

6.5%

bottom 25%

#T308

Recent arrivals

0.5%

bottom 25%

Immigrants arrived 2016–21

#308

Visible minority

2.9%

bottom 25%

#116

Indigenous

4.4%

#T130

Govt. transfers

14.4%

#T121

Self-employed

15.5%

Industry of employment

Public sector30.9%

Trades & transport21.5%

Finance & prof9.5%

Manufacturing6.8%

Resources2.8%

Infrastructure & environment

Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.

High

Index: 42.0 / 100

Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.

Low

Index: 1 (avg = 100)

Crime severityⓘStatsCan Crime Severity Index for the riding's CMA, rescaled so Canada's national average = 100. Categories: Below average < 80 · Average 80–110 · Elevated 110–140 · High severity 140+.

Below average

Index: 78.6 (avg = 100)

Federal Spending

Avg federal spending

$13.9M/yr

Avg CCBF allocation

$2.7M/yr

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