ONSWINGOntario

Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt

Jim Belanger

Conservative

Civic Tools

A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.

Projected vote share — current polls

Liberal44%±6%·65% win

Conservative41%±6%·35% win

NDP9%±6%·<1% win

Green3%±4%·<1% win

People's2%±3%·<1% win

Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win

Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations

Riding snapshot

Resource sector

12.5%

#22 of 343top 10%

Median income

$51,300

Renters

19.8%

Under 35

12.2%

Top industry

Public sector · 32.2%

Area

45,433 km²

GE45 result

Margin

6.7%

Competitive

93.3/100

Key issues

Seniors & healthcare32.7% aged 65+

Demographics · 2021 Census

Key Stats

#T188

Median income

$51,300

#175

Avg 2BR rent

$1483/mo

2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025

#T195

Unemployment

9.5%

#267

Shelter stressed

14.1%

bottom 25%

#275

Renters

19.8%

bottom 25%

Age distribution

Under 35

12.2%#259

35–64

55.1%

65+

32.7%#72

Housing tenure

Renters

19.8%#275

Owners

77.7%

Education attainment (ages 25–64)

No diploma

10.9%#139

High school

27.0%#121

College/trades

47.3%#33

Bachelor's

11.3%#307

Postgrad

3.4%#332

People & Economy

#87

French knowledge

43.3%

#317

Immigrants

3.0%

bottom 10%

#T338

Recent arrivals

0.2%

bottom 5%

Immigrants arrived 2016–21

#330

Visible minority

1.6%

bottom 5%

#20

Indigenous

18.4%

top 10%

#T92

Govt. transfers

16.0%

#299

Self-employed

9.9%

bottom 25%

Industry of employment

Public sector32.2%

Trades & transport22.9%

Resources12.5%

Finance & prof5.5%

Manufacturing5.4%

Infrastructure & environment

Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.

High

Index: 38.0 / 100

Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.

Moderate

Index: 30 (avg = 100)

Crime severityⓘStatsCan Crime Severity Index for the riding's CMA, rescaled so Canada's national average = 100. Categories: Below average < 80 · Average 80–110 · Elevated 110–140 · High severity 140+.

Below average

Index: 76.2 (avg = 100)

Federal Spending

Avg federal spending

$5.3M/yr

Avg CCBF allocation

$0.0M/yr

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