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SKSAFEPrairies
Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan
F
Fraser Tolmie
Conservative
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Conservative64%±6%·>99% win
Liberal20%±4%·<1% win
NDP9%±5%·<1% win
People's4%±3%·<1% win
Green3%±3%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Resource sector
18.1%
#10 of 343top 5%
Median income
$54,300
Renters
21.6%
Under 35
15.9%
Top industry
Public sector · 26.9%
Area
40,910 km²
GE45 result
Margin
55.2%
Competitive
44.8/100
Key issues
Energy & natural resources18.1% resource sector
Seniors & healthcare31.7% aged 65+
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#T135
Median income
$54,300
#276
Avg 2BR rent
$1145/mo
bottom 25%2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T284
Unemployment
7.1%
bottom 25%#262
Shelter stressed
14.3%
bottom 25%#259
Renters
21.6%
bottom 25%Age distribution
Under 35
15.9%#143
35–64
52.3%
65+
31.7%#94
Housing tenure
Renters
21.6%#259
Owners
78.0%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
9.7%#173
High school
32.7%#19
College/trades
38.1%#131
Bachelor's
14.7%#235
Postgrad
4.8%#287
People & Economy
#304
French knowledge
4.4%
bottom 25%#264
Immigrants
7.1%
bottom 25%#209
Recent arrivals
2.0%
Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#238
Visible minority
6.8%
#76
Indigenous
6.7%
top 25%#T160
Govt. transfers
13.4%
#16
Self-employed
21.7%
top 5%Industry of employment
Public sector26.9%
Trades & transport20.5%
Resources18.1%
Finance & prof6.2%
Manufacturing4.3%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
ModerateIndex: 27.3 / 100
Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.
LowIndex: 1 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$3.7M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$2.0M/yr
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