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ONSAFEOntario
New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury
S
Scot Davidson
Conservative
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Conservative51%±5%·96% win
Liberal40%±5%·4% win
NDP4%±5%·<1% win
Green3%±4%·<1% win
People's2%±3%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Construction
13.6%
#6 of 343top 5%
Median income
$55,600
Renters
16.1%
Under 35
13.1%
Top industry
Public sector · 20.7%
Area
754 km²
GE45 result
Margin
22.4%
Competitive
77.6/100
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#114
Median income
$55,600
#54
Avg 2BR rent
$1954/mo
top 25%2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T143
Unemployment
10.7%
#82
Shelter stressed
25.0%
top 25%#T315
Renters
16.1%
bottom 10%Age distribution
Under 35
13.1%#T235
35–64
63.0%
65+
23.9%#257
Housing tenure
Renters
16.1%#T315
Owners
83.9%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
10.8%#142
High school
27.2%#114
College/trades
35.7%#T157
Bachelor's
19.1%#168
Postgrad
7.1%#T214
People & Economy
#T272
French knowledge
5.1%
bottom 25%#122
Immigrants
26.4%
#T180
Recent arrivals
2.6%
Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#138
Visible minority
25.6%
#T251
Indigenous
1.5%
#T226
Govt. transfers
11.0%
#98
Self-employed
16.3%
Industry of employment
Trades & transport22.6%
Public sector20.7%
Manufacturing12.5%
Finance & prof11.1%
Resources1.8%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
HighIndex: 41.6 / 100
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$3.9M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$1.0M/yr
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