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ONSWINGOntario
Niagara West
D
Dean Allison
Conservative
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Liberal46%±6%·59% win
Conservative44%±5%·41% win
NDP5%±6%·<1% win
Green3%±3%·<1% win
People's2%±3%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Drive to work
88.1%
#22 of 343top 10%
Median income
$57,800
Renters
16.2%
Under 35
11.2%
Top industry
Public sector · 26.1%
Area
1,205 km²
GE45 result
Margin
8.5%
Competitive
91.5/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare32.4% aged 65+
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#T91
Median income
$57,800
#161
Avg 2BR rent
$1518/mo
2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T160
Unemployment
10.3%
#219
Shelter stressed
17.0%
#314
Renters
16.2%
bottom 10%Age distribution
Under 35
11.2%#286
35–64
56.4%
65+
32.4%#81
Housing tenure
Renters
16.2%#314
Owners
83.8%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
6.8%#255
High school
25.4%#140
College/trades
39.0%#113
Bachelor's
19.8%#161
Postgrad
8.9%#179
People & Economy
#253
French knowledge
5.7%
#182
Immigrants
15.1%
#T257
Recent arrivals
1.0%
Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#223
Visible minority
8.8%
#T193
Indigenous
2.2%
#T201
Govt. transfers
11.7%
#86
Self-employed
16.9%
Industry of employment
Public sector26.1%
Trades & transport18.6%
Manufacturing10.0%
Finance & prof9.9%
Resources5.0%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
HighIndex: 45.1 / 100
Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.
LowIndex: 0 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$7.0M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$4.4M/yr
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