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BCSAFEBC
North Vancouver—Capilano
J
Jonathan Wilkinson
Liberal
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Liberal58%±6%·>99% win
Conservative25%±5%·<1% win
NDP12%±5%·<1% win
Green4%±4%·<1% win
People's2%±2%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Self-employed
21.9%
#15 of 343top 5%
Median income
$71,700
Renters
39.2%
Under 35
13.5%
Top industry
Public sector · 24.1%
Area
330 km²
GE45 result
Margin
26.1%
Competitive
73.9/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare30.2% aged 65+
Immigration & settlement38.2% immigrants
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#20
Median income
$71,700
top 10%#199
Avg 2BR rent
$1410/mo
2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T259
Unemployment
8.1%
bottom 25%#19
Shelter stressed
33.0%
top 10%#86
Renters
39.2%
Age distribution
Under 35
13.5%#217
35–64
56.3%
65+
30.2%#120
Housing tenure
Renters
39.2%#86
Owners
60.0%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
2.6%#340
High school
17.2%#274
College/trades
26.3%#283
Bachelor's
33.4%#28
Postgrad
20.5%#33
People & Economy
#148
French knowledge
9.9%
#66
Immigrants
38.2%
top 25%#89
Recent arrivals
5.5%
Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#96
Visible minority
36.1%
#163
Indigenous
2.9%
#T323
Govt. transfers
6.9%
bottom 10%#15
Self-employed
21.9%
top 5%Industry of employment
Public sector24.1%
Finance & prof21.0%
Trades & transport11.2%
Manufacturing3.7%
Resources1.0%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
ModerateIndex: 24.7 / 100
Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.
LowIndex: 0 (avg = 100)
Crime severityⓘStatsCan Crime Severity Index for the riding's CMA, rescaled so Canada's national average = 100. Categories: Below average < 80 · Average 80–110 · Elevated 110–140 · High severity 140+.
AverageIndex: 104.3 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$0.4M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$6.3M/yr
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