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ONSWINGOntario
Parry Sound—Muskoka
S
Scott Aitchison
Conservative
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Conservative45%±6%·50% win
Liberal45%±6%·50% win
NDP5%±6%·<1% win
Green3%±3%·<1% win
People's3%±3%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Construction
16.2%
#1 of 343top 5%
Median income
$52,500
Renters
17.1%
Under 35
9.7%
Top industry
Public sector · 23.6%
Area
19,902 km²
GE45 result
Margin
9.6%
Competitive
90.4/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare40.4% aged 65+
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#T166
Median income
$52,500
#T86
Avg 2BR rent
$1821/mo
2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T148
Unemployment
10.6%
#184
Shelter stressed
18.8%
#306
Renters
17.1%
bottom 25%Age distribution
Under 35
9.7%#325
35–64
49.9%
65+
40.4%#6
Housing tenure
Renters
17.1%#306
Owners
82.4%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
10.6%#T150
High school
31.9%#28
College/trades
37.9%#132
Bachelor's
14.2%#247
Postgrad
5.3%#266
People & Economy
#T255
French knowledge
5.6%
#254
Immigrants
7.7%
#326
Recent arrivals
0.4%
bottom 5%Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#311
Visible minority
2.5%
bottom 10%#T95
Indigenous
5.4%
#T84
Govt. transfers
16.2%
top 25%#23
Self-employed
21.1%
top 10%Industry of employment
Trades & transport25.8%
Public sector23.6%
Finance & prof7.3%
Manufacturing6.5%
Resources2.3%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
HighIndex: 48.2 / 100
Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.
ModerateIndex: 43 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$5.8M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$2.2M/yr
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