ONSWINGOntario

Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes

Michael Barrett

Conservative

Civic Tools

A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.

Projected vote share — current polls

Liberal46%±6%·73% win

Conservative42%±6%·27% win

NDP6%±6%·<1% win

Green4%±4%·<1% win

People's2%±3%·<1% win

Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win

Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations

Riding snapshot

65+

37.2%

#20 of 343top 10%

Median income

$51,040

Renters

21.9%

Under 35

10.5%

Top industry

Public sector · 29.1%

Area

3,898 km²

GE45 result

Margin

5.6%

Competitive

94.4/100

Key issues

Seniors & healthcare37.2% aged 65+

Demographics · 2021 Census

Key Stats

#T191

Median income

$51,040

#123

Avg 2BR rent

$1642/mo

2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025

#T160

Unemployment

10.3%

#233

Shelter stressed

16.1%

#253

Renters

21.9%

Age distribution

Under 35

10.5%#T303

35–64

52.2%

65+

37.2%#20

Housing tenure

Renters

21.9%#253

Owners

78.1%

Education attainment (ages 25–64)

No diploma

9.1%#186

High school

28.7%#T81

College/trades

43.4%#49

Bachelor's

13.4%#264

Postgrad

5.4%#T258

People & Economy

#T122

French knowledge

12.4%

#262

Immigrants

7.3%

bottom 25%

#311

Recent arrivals

0.5%

bottom 10%

Immigrants arrived 2016–21

#304

Visible minority

3.1%

bottom 25%

#T147

Indigenous

3.5%

#T84

Govt. transfers

16.2%

top 25%

#130

Self-employed

15.0%

Industry of employment

Public sector29.1%

Trades & transport21.3%

Manufacturing9.2%

Finance & prof7.6%

Resources3.3%

Infrastructure & environment

Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.

High

Index: 38.8 / 100

Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.

Low

Index: 0 (avg = 100)

Crime severityⓘStatsCan Crime Severity Index for the riding's CMA, rescaled so Canada's national average = 100. Categories: Below average < 80 · Average 80–110 · Elevated 110–140 · High severity 140+.

Below average

Index: 78.6 (avg = 100)

Federal Spending

Avg federal spending

$3.0M/yr

Avg CCBF allocation

$0.1M/yr

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