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ONTOSSUPOntario
Simcoe North
A
Adam Chambers
Conservative
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Liberal47%±6%·80% win
Conservative41%±5%·20% win
NDP6%±6%·<1% win
Green4%±4%·<1% win
People's2%±3%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
65+
37.2%
#21 of 343top 10%
Median income
$48,040
Renters
23.7%
Under 35
11.3%
Top industry
Public sector · 28.9%
Area
2,978 km²
GE45 result
Margin
3.7%
Competitive
96.3/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare37.2% aged 65+
Employment13.0% unemployment
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#245
Median income
$48,040
#307
Avg 2BR rent
$1025/mo
bottom 25%2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T59
Unemployment
13.0%
top 25%#142
Shelter stressed
21.3%
#230
Renters
23.7%
Age distribution
Under 35
11.3%#T283
35–64
51.5%
65+
37.2%#21
Housing tenure
Renters
23.7%#230
Owners
75.8%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
11.4%#T125
High school
30.4%#54
College/trades
39.9%#92
Bachelor's
13.3%#268
Postgrad
5.0%#277
People & Economy
#182
French knowledge
7.6%
#239
Immigrants
9.1%
#T308
Recent arrivals
0.5%
bottom 25%Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#279
Visible minority
4.3%
bottom 25%#42
Indigenous
11.4%
top 25%#T55
Govt. transfers
17.4%
top 25%#116
Self-employed
15.6%
Industry of employment
Public sector28.9%
Trades & transport21.3%
Manufacturing9.9%
Finance & prof7.3%
Resources1.8%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
Very highIndex: 57.5 / 100
Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.
LowIndex: 4 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$41.0M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$4.3M/yr
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