Canadian electoral simulation

What would Canada look like
if the election were held today?

Northern Vibe simulates every riding, forecasts the trajectory, and reads the national mood — live.

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How it works

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Simulation

A 343-riding Monte Carlo model combines each riding's demographic profile with historical results and current polling to produce seat projections — not just a national number.

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Forecast

A Bayesian trajectory model built from economic indicators projects party support 3, 6, and 12 months out — so you can see where things are heading, not just where they are today.

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The Vibe

A daily news sentiment pipeline reads thousands of Canadian political headlines, scores them for each party, and feeds the result into the model as a real-time attribution modifier.

Current seat estimate

Based on current polling — select a scenario to see it shift

Explore the map →

LPC232

CPC85

BQ18

NDP7

GPC1

of 343 seats

Data sources

Elections Canada·StatsCan 2021 Census·CMHC Housing Starts·National polling aggregator