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Jul 9, 2026
The Riding That Always Catches the Wave (4/343)
4/343 - Laurier–Sainte-Marie
Read full analysis →Current seat projection
· Jul 11, 2026▲▼ vs. 7 days ago
Our forecast correctly called 97.7% of ridings in the 2025 federal election. Verify our numbers →
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SubscribeThe 343
One riding at a time: a tour of all 343 federal seats.
Field Notes
Long-form analysis of the forces shaping Canadian politics.
Accountability Tracker
Since July 2024 · Day 729
Currently
Engaged Accountability
Voters stay engaged while the government is in the frame — scrutiny without electoral penalty. The trail has held in this quadrant for more than a month (previously: Rally Effect).
Representative coverage from this quadrant
“Coalition calls on Federal Government to Unlock over $800 million in Community Investment Through Targeted Tax Reform”
MediaCloud · 2 days ago
See the full 2D tracker →Where the race is heading
Trajectory forecast & issue salience
What Canadians care about
- 1Economy21%●
- 2Cost of Living12%▲1.3
- 3Canada-US Relations8%▼4.3
- 4Healthcare7%▼1.2
- 5Immigration5%●
How it works
Parliament
See how the simulation translates into seats. Explore the hemicycle, find the most contested ridings, track what flipped, and check Cabinet hold probabilities under any scenario.
View Parliament →Forecast
Economic indicators — jobs, housing, inflation — feed a model that projects where party support is heading over the next 1 to 6 months. Not just where things stand, but where they're going.
View the forecast →Issues Tracker
Weekly Nanos polling tracks which issues Canadians care about most — cost of living, housing, healthcare, Canada-US relations — so you can see what's rising and what's fading.
Track the issues →Polls
A house-effect-corrected rolling average of every published national poll, updated automatically as new surveys are released.
View the polls →Every model decision is documented and open for scrutiny.
Read the full methodology →Data sources
Elections Canada · StatsCan 2021 Census · CMHC Housing Starts · National polling aggregator
About this project →