Aug 25, 2026
Aug 25, 2026
Find Your Corner of The Great White North
Your MPs
Add your riding
Saved in this browser — no account needed.
Current seat projection
· Aug 25, 2026Liberal majority
231 of 343 seats · 172 needed for a majority
We tested the model on the 2025 election using only what was known before election day. It picked the right winner in 88.0% of ridings. Verify our numbers →
QC · in 6 days
From the newsletter
All →
Aug 13, 2026
Many Firsts and a Pendulum (8/343)
8/343 - Brantford-Brant South-Six Nations
Read full analysis →
Jul 30, 2026
Midtown, Middle-Earth, Battleground (7/343)
7/343 — Toronto-St. Paul's
Read full analysis →Get our analysis delivered to your inbox. Free and no ads.
SubscribeQC · in 6 days
Accountability TrackerThe Northern Vibe Accountability Tracker
Since August 2024 · Day 730 of tracking
Currently
Rally Effect
External forces take the blame, and the government holds approval.
Every day we score Canadian political coverage on two questions: is the government being blamed, and is it holding public approval? The trail plots one against the other.
Recent coverage
How it works
Parliament
How the projection turns into a House of Commons.How the projection turns into a House of Commons — who holds what, and which seats have changed hands.
View Parliament →Forecast
Where party support is heading over the next six months.Jobs, housing and inflation feed a model of where support is heading over the next one to six months.
View the forecast →Issues Tracker
What Canadians say matters most right now.What Canadians say matters most right now — cost of living, the economy, healthcare, Canada–US relations — and what's rising or fading.
Track the issues →Polls
Every published national poll, averaged and corrected.Every published national poll, averaged and corrected for each pollster's known lean. Updates on its own.
View the polls →Every model decision is documented and open for scrutiny.
Read the full methodology →Data sources
Elections Canada · StatsCan 2021 Census · CMHC Housing Starts · National polling aggregator
About this project →