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Oct 11, 2026

The Northern Vibe🍁 Who governs, and who answers for it. Riding by riding.

Who answers for your riding?

Find your MP, reach their office, and follow what changes where you live.

If an election were held today

Our model, from published polls. Paler means closer.

All 343 ridings

Canada

Projected Liberal majority

172 for a majority
  • Liberal240▲7
  • Conservative71▼7
  • Bloc20
  • NDP11
  • Green1

▲▼ vs. 7 days ago

240 of 343 seats · 172 needed for a majority. Majority in >99% of simulations · 80% land between 210 and 267 seats

We tested the model on the 2025 election using only what was known before election day. It picked the right winner in 88.0% of ridings.

The projection, seat by seat →

British Columbia

Projected Conservative majority

47 for a majority
  • Conservative52
  • NDP39
  • Green2

Votes Oct 24, 2026 · 13 days to go

52 of 93 seats · 47 needed for a majority. Majority in 73% of simulations · 80% land between 40 and 63 seats

How to vote, from Elections BC: Find your voting place · Ways to vote · Register to vote

Find your district →The BC forecast →

The Northern Vibe newsletter

All 343 ridings, one at a time.

Independent, riding-by-riding analysis of Canadian politics, in your inbox.

  • The 343A profile of every riding: the place, the people who have represented it, what decides it.
  • Field NotesLong-form analysis of what is moving, and why.
  • When things moveA note when the model shifts, new polls land or a riding flips.

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Recent issues

Read the archive →

Who's getting the blame?

The Accountability Tracker scores Canadian political coverage every day for who it blames, and plots that against government approval.

Rally Effect · day 64

External forces take the blame, and the government holds approval.

20%30%40%50%60%−0.20+0.200CRISISWITH COVERON THEHOOKRALLYEFFECTENGAGEDACCOUNTABILITY← External blameGovt. blame →Attribution IndexGovernment Approval %TODAY
Weekly since October 2024. Quadrant names describe the public conversation, not the government's performance; any party's government can sit in any of them.
Where the blame falls
strongly toward external blame
Among the strongest readings since tracking began
Government approval
60%
Smoothed, from published polls

Recent coverage, as our model scored it

See the full trackerHow we score coverage →

Data sources

Elections Canada · StatsCan 2021 Census · CMHC Housing Starts · National polling aggregator

Read the full methodology →About this project →