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May 12, 2026
Who you vote for may depend on whether you own your home
The sharpest divide in Canadian electoral politics might be your mortgage.
Read full analysis →Current seat projection
· May 19, 2026▲▼ vs. 14 days ago
Our forecast correctly called 97.7% of ridings in the 2025 federal election. Verify our numbers →
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SubscribeHow it works
Simulation Map
Every one of Canada's 343 ridings gets its own projection. Drag a scenario slider and watch seats shift in real time.
Open the map →Parliament
See how the simulation translates into seats. Explore the hemicycle, find the most contested ridings, track what flipped, and check Cabinet hold probabilities under any scenario.
View Parliament →Forecast
Economic indicators — jobs, housing, inflation — feed a model that projects where party support is heading over the next 1 to 6 months. Not just where things stand, but where they're going.
View the forecast →Accountability
Every day, thousands of Canadian political headlines are read and scored: is the media blaming the government or outside forces? The answer quietly shifts the forecast.
View accountability →Issues Tracker
Weekly Nanos polling tracks which issues Canadians care about most — cost of living, housing, healthcare, Canada-US relations — so you can see what's rising and what's fading.
Track the issues →Polls
A house-effect-corrected rolling average of every published national poll, updated automatically as new surveys are released.
View the polls →Every model decision is documented and open for scrutiny.
Read the full methodology →Data sources
Elections Canada · StatsCan 2021 Census · CMHC Housing Starts · National polling aggregator
About this project →