About Northern Vibe
The Northern Vibe Project is an independent electoral platform for Canadian federal politics, built to make it easy for anyone — not just political scientists — to explore how changes in public opinion translate into actual seats in the House of Commons. Northern Vibe also makes it easy for you to contact your representative about the issues which matter most to you and your community. Simply find your riding on our map to see previous election results, demographics based on census data, top news stories in your area, and the contact information for your MP.
Our platform is built on six features: a riding-level simulation map that projects seats from current polling, a Parliament view that turns those projections into a live hemicycle with regional breakdowns and Cabinet hold probabilities, a polls tracker that aggregates every published survey with house-effect corrections, an economic forecast that projects party support months into the future, an accountability tracker that reads daily Canadian news to measure the political mood in real time, and an issues tracker that follows what Canadians say matters most, week by week, from cost of living to Canada-US relations.
Our Goal: To help make political information more accessible to every Canadian.
By the numbers
What's on the platform
Simulation Map
Every one of Canada's 343 ridings gets its own projection. Drag a scenario slider and watch seats shift in real time.
Open the map →Parliament
See how 343 seats divide across parties and provinces under any scenario. Explore the hemicycle, which ridings are most competitive, what flipped from today, and how the Cabinet would be affected.
View Parliament →Accountability
Thousands of Canadian political headlines are read and scored daily. Watch the media narrative shift and see how it moves the numbers.
View accountability →Issues Tracker
What do Canadians actually care about? Weekly Nanos polling data tracks which issues are rising or falling in the public mind: cost of living, housing, healthcare, and Canada-US relations.
Track the issues →Forecast
Economic indicators feed a Bayesian model that projects party support 1, 3, and 6 months out, with calibrated uncertainty bands.
View the forecast →Polls
A house-effect-corrected rolling average of every published national and regional poll, updated automatically as new surveys are released.
View the polls →How the model works
Each riding starts from its certified 2025 election result and is shifted using empirically calibrated vote-transfer matrices, demographic covariates from the Statistics Canada census, and correlated province-level randomness. Running 2,000 simulated elections per scenario produces a probability distribution over seat outcomes — not a single point estimate.
The Team
Matt Hickey
Founder and Data Analyst · Halifax, NS
Built Northern Vibe out of frustration with election coverage that reduces complex riding-by-riding dynamics to a single national poll number. The map tells a richer story.
PhD Biomedical Engineering, University of British Columbia
Caitlin Griffiths
Co-Founder and Political Analyst · Halifax, NS
Passionate about how politics shapes people's lives, and making that story easier to follow. Digs into riding-level dynamics and local context so readers can better understand the nuances.
International Development and Social Anthropology, Dalhousie University
Questions about the methodology? Media inquiries? Just want to talk Canadian politics?
We'd love to hear from you. See our FAQ for common questions.
Support Northern Vibe
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Coming Soon
Features we're actively building. Check back soon.
Electoral Reform Sandbox
Coming soonExplore how Canada's electoral map would look under proportional representation, ranked-choice voting, or mixed-member systems. Drag the same scenario sliders and compare seat outcomes across electoral models side-by-side.
Full French Language Support
In progressNavigation, riding cards, and all short UI text are now available in French — switch using the FR / EN toggle in the top navigation bar. Full French translation of long-form content (methodology, forecasting explanations, and issue descriptions) is coming soon.