Your division
Find your division, and who represents it.
Your MLA, how your division voted in 2023, and what the polls point to there now.
The House today
United Conservative majority
United Conservative: 47 of 87 seats. A majority is 44.
No election has been called. The next general election is set by law for October 18, 2027, and can be called sooner.
Who governs
Since the 2023 election, 2 seats have changed party.
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Alberta, in your inbox.
Our Alberta coverage as the polls move, plus a profile of every federal riding, one at a time.
- The 343A profile of every riding: the place, the people who have represented it, what decides it.
- Field NotesLong-form analysis of what is moving, and why.
- When things moveA note when the model shifts, new polls land or a riding flips.
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If an election were held today
Nov 2, 2026Alberta NDP majority
67% chance of a majority · 46 of 87 seats expected
36–54 seats in 80% of simulations · 44 needed
- Alberta NDP majority67%
- United Conservative majority32%
- Tie for most seats<1%
Election set for October 18, 2027
Too close to call
- Airdrie-CochraneUnited Conservative vs Alberta NDPUCP45%NDP44%
- Strathcona-Sherwood ParkUnited Conservative vs Alberta NDPUCP52%NDP48%
- Morinville-St. AlbertAlberta NDP vs United ConservativeNDP56%UCP44%
- Calgary-Fish CreekUnited Conservative vs Alberta NDPUCP59%NDP41%
- Calgary-ShawAlberta NDP vs United ConservativeNDP63%UCP37%
- Calgary-EastAlberta NDP vs United ConservativeNDP67%UCP33%
How close 2023 was
14 divisions were decided by under five points, and 18 by under ten. Small moves in the provincial vote move seats. See how the average is built.
Where the polls stand
Every provincial poll since the 2023 election, each corrected for its firm's lean against the others, then averaged by recency and sample size.
UCP and NDP, too close to call
The average on Nov 2, 2026: UCP 45.2% · NDP 44.6% · Progressive Tory 4.1%
- In today's average
- 6 polls
- Weighted by recency and sample size
- Since the 2023 election
- 46 polls
- From 14 firms
Latest polls
What you can do here
Map
87 divisions by projected winner.All 87 divisions, coloured by projected winner, with the win probability behind every one.
Open the map →Polls
Every poll, and the average.Every provincial poll, and the weighted average built from them.
See the polls →Legislature
Standings and the cabinet.Standings in the 87-seat Legislative Assembly and who holds each cabinet portfolio.
See the House →Divisions
2023 results, division by division.The certified 2023 result, the margin, and the census profile for every division.
Browse divisions →Projections are a swing model over the certified 2023 result, not a poll of polls dressed up as seats.
How the average is built →Data sources
Elections Alberta · Government of Alberta (boundaries and the 2021 Census division profiles) · Wikipedia (polls)
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