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SouthSafeRural

Brooks-Medicine Hat

MLA: Danielle Smith · United Conservative

Projected winner

If an election were held today. Projection as of Nov 3, 2026; the next election is set for October 18, 2027.

United Conservative>99% chance of winning

  • United Conservative · 58.7% projected vote>99%

2023 result

  • Danielle Smith · United Conservativeelected13,31566.5%
  • Gwendoline Dirk · Alberta NDP5,47727.4%
  • Barry Morishita · Progressive Tory1,2336.2%
Margin
39.1%
Tier
Safe
Turnout
57.9%
Registered
34,594

2019 result

  • Michaela Glasgo · United Conservativeelected13,60660.7%
  • Lynn Macwilliam · Alberta NDP4,01217.9%
  • Todd Beasley · Independent2,75912.3%
  • Jim Black · Progressive Tory1,5546.9%
  • Jamah Bashir Farah · Liberal2811.3%
  • Collin Pacholek · Other2181.0%

Division at a glance

2021 Census of Population, from the Government of Alberta's profile of the 87 provincial electoral divisions, which allocates Statistics Canada's counts to each division directly: counts and medians are the census's own, not estimates. Ranks are against all 87 divisions.

Median household income
$85,00062 of 87
Average rent
$1,07781 of 87
Renters
27.6%30 of 87
Bachelor's or higher
12.6%74 of 87
Median age
40.038 of 87
Over 65
16.6%31 of 87
Visible minority
18.4%48 of 87
Immigrants
17.5%52 of 87
Indigenous identity
3.9%62 of 87
Unemployment
10.2%63 of 87

Closest races, South

The seats most likely to move with this one.

Results: Elections Alberta. Boundaries and census profile: Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Alberta.