If an election were held today
Alberta NDP majority
67% chance of a majority · 46 of 87 seats expected
Outcome odds, if an election were held today
- Alberta NDP majority67%
- United Conservative majority32%
- Tie for most seats<1%
Election set for October 18, 2027
Seats won
bar = 80% range▲▼ change from seats held today44 to govern
- NDP46▲77 seats more than it holds today36–54 likelyNaheed Nenshi
more likely than not to win a majority
UCP41▼66 seats fewer than it holds today33–51 likelyDanielle Smith
Progressive Tory0▼11 seat fewer than it holds today0–1 likelyPeter Guthrie
Liberal00–0 likelyJohn Roggeveen
Green00–0 likelyJames Anderson
Projected on the 87 electoral divisions in force (the 2017 map, used in 2019 and 2023). A new map is before the Legislature: Bill 32 (2026) sets 91 divisions, and no Electoral Divisions Act has passed yet.
Divisions projected to change party
(8)Divisions where the projected winner is a different party from the one holding the seat now. Left dot is who holds it, right is who takes it.
DivisionChangeChance
Projected change
Paler = too close to call
46▲ 7 vs today
41▼ 6 vs today