If an election were held today
Manitoba NDP majority
>99% chance of a majority · 43 of 57 seats expected
Outcome odds, if an election were held today
- Manitoba NDP majority>99%
Election set for Tuesday, October 5, 2027
Seats won
bar = 80% range▲▼ change from seats held today29 to govern
- NDP43▲99 seats more than it holds today40–46 likelyWab Kinew
virtually certain to win a majority
PC13▼66 seats fewer than it holds today10–15 likelyKonrad Narth (interim)
Liberal11–2 likelyWillard Reaves
Green00–0 likelyJanine G. Gibson
Projected on the 57 electoral divisions of the 2018 map, used in 2019 and 2023 and in force for the 2027 election. The next boundaries commission sits in 2028, and its map takes effect only at a later dissolution.
Divisions projected to change party
(10)Divisions where the projected winner is a different party from the one holding the seat now. Left dot is who holds it, right is who takes it.
DivisionChangeChance
Projected change
Paler = too close to call
43▲ 9 vs today
13▼ 6 vs today
1