If an election were held today
Progressive Conservative majority
73% chance of a majority · 68 of 124 seats expected
Outcome odds, if an election were held today
- Progressive Conservative majority73%
- Progressive Conservative most seats, no majority26%
- Liberal most seats, no majority<1%
No fixed election date: the House must be dissolved by March 7, 2030
Seats won
bar = 80% range▲▼ change from seats held today63 to govern
- PC68▼1111 seats fewer than it holds today56–80 likelyDoug Ford
more likely than not to win a majority
NDP28▲11 seat more than it holds today26–30 likelyMarit Stiles
Liberal25▲1111 seats more than it holds today14–37 likelyJohn Fraser (interim)
Green22–3 likelyMike Schreiner- INIndependent1▼11 seat fewer than it holds today0–1 likely
Districts projected to change party
(11)Districts where the projected winner is a different party from the one holding the seat now. Left dot is who holds it, right is who takes it.
DistrictChangeChance
Projected change
Paler = too close to call
68▼ 11 vs today
28▲ 1 vs today
25▲ 11 vs today
2
IN
1▼ 1 vs today