Districts
All 124 provincial electoral districts, on the map used in 2018, 2022 and 2025. Each row shows who is projected to win it and with what confidence; the 2025 margin follows.
Toronto 25 seats
- Beaches—East YorkMary-Margaret McMahon · LiberalLiberal>99%28.2%Safe
- DavenportMarit Stiles · Ontario NDPNDP>99%36.5%Safe
- Don Valley EastAdil Shamji · LiberalLiberal>99%24.5%Safe
- Don Valley NorthJonathan Tsao · LiberalLiberal95%6.2%Safe
- Don Valley WestStephanie Bowman · LiberalLiberal>99%23.3%Safe
- Eglinton—LawrenceMichelle Cooper · Progressive ConservativeLiberalflip71%0.4%Swing
- Etobicoke CentreKinga Surma · Progressive ConservativePC63%6.3%Swing
- Etobicoke NorthDoug Ford · Progressive ConservativePC>99%31.0%Safe
- Etobicoke—LakeshoreLee Fairclough · LiberalLiberal97%8.0%Safe
- Humber River—Black CreekTom Rakocevic · Ontario NDPNDP87%0.8%Lean
- Parkdale—High ParkAlexa Gilmour · Ontario NDPNDP>99%14.5%Safe
- Scarborough CentreDavid Smith · Progressive ConservativeLiberalflip64%1.7%Swing
- Scarborough NorthRaymond Cho · Progressive ConservativePC99%18.2%Safe
- Scarborough SouthwestFatima Shaban · Ontario NDPNDP>99%12.3%Safe
- Scarborough—AgincourtAris Babikian · Progressive ConservativePC70%7.5%Swing
- Scarborough—GuildwoodAndrea Hazell · LiberalLiberal>99%13.3%Safe
- Scarborough—Rouge ParkVijay Thanigasalam · Progressive ConservativePC77%8.9%Lean
- Spadina—Fort YorkChris Glover · Ontario NDPNDP99%13.4%Safe
- Toronto CentreKristyn Wong-Tam · Ontario NDPNDP96%8.3%Safe
- Toronto—DanforthPeter Tabuns · Ontario NDPNDP>99%39.2%Safe
- Toronto—St. Paul'sStephanie Smyth · LiberalLiberal84%9.1%Lean
- University—RosedaleJessica Bell · Ontario NDPNDP>99%14.8%Safe
- WillowdaleStan Cho · Progressive ConservativeLiberalflip62%1.9%Swing
- York CentreMichael Kerzner · Progressive ConservativePC99%18.4%Safe
- York South—WestonMohamed Firin · Progressive ConservativeLiberalflip65%0.6%Swing
GTA 30 seats
- AjaxRobert Cerjanec · LiberalLiberal77%0.8%Lean
- Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond HillMichael Parsa · Progressive ConservativePC>99%23.3%Safe
- Brampton CentreCharmaine Williams · Progressive ConservativePC99%17.9%Safe
- Brampton EastHardeep Grewal · Progressive ConservativePC>99%21.9%Safe
- Brampton NorthGraham McGregor · Progressive ConservativePC>99%27.2%Safe
- Brampton SouthPrabmeet Singh Sarkaria · Progressive ConservativePC>99%20.0%Safe
- Brampton WestAmarjot Sandhu · Progressive ConservativePC>99%24.1%Safe
- BurlingtonNatalie Pierre · Progressive ConservativeLiberalflip73%0.1%Swing
- DurhamTodd McCarthy · Progressive ConservativePC>99%21.1%Safe
- King—VaughanStephen Lecce · Progressive ConservativePC>99%36.2%Safe
- Markham—StouffvillePaul Calandra · Progressive ConservativePC79%9.2%Lean
- Markham—ThornhillLogan Kanapathi · Progressive ConservativePC94%13.9%Safe
- Markham—UnionvilleBilly Pang · Progressive ConservativePC>99%30.3%Safe
- MiltonZee Hamid · Progressive ConservativePC62%6.0%Swing
- Mississauga CentreNatalia Kusendova · Progressive ConservativePC60%5.7%Swing
- Mississauga East—CooksvilleSilvia Gualtieri · Progressive ConservativeLiberalflip54%3.4%Toss-up
- Mississauga—Erin MillsSheref Sabawy · Progressive ConservativeLiberalflip73%0.1%Swing
- Mississauga—LakeshoreRudy Cuzzetto · Progressive ConservativeLiberalflip51%3.9%Toss-up
- Mississauga—MaltonDeepak Anand · Progressive ConservativePC90%12.2%Lean
- Mississauga—StreetsvilleNina Tangri · Progressive ConservativePC53%4.5%Toss-up
- Newmarket—AuroraDawn Gallagher Murphy · Progressive ConservativePC61%6.0%Swing
- OakvilleStephen Crawford · Progressive ConservativeLiberalflip51%3.9%Toss-up
- Oakville North—BurlingtonEffie Triantafilopoulos · Progressive ConservativePC77%8.8%Lean
- OshawaJennifer French · Ontario NDPNDP96%4.3%Safe
- Pickering—UxbridgePeter Bethlenfalvy · Progressive ConservativePC76%8.5%Lean
- Richmond HillDaisy Wai · Progressive ConservativePC>99%21.2%Safe
- ThornhillLaura Smith · Progressive ConservativePC>99%35.7%Safe
- Vaughan—WoodbridgeMichael Tibollo · Progressive ConservativePC>99%38.6%Safe
- WhitbyLorne Coe · Progressive ConservativePC76%8.5%Lean
- York—SimcoeSusan Lahey · Progressive ConservativePC>99%35.5%Safe
Ottawa 8 seats
- CarletonGeorge Darouze · Progressive ConservativePC87%11.0%Lean
- Kanata—CarletonKaren McCrimmon · LiberalLiberal96%7.3%Safe
- NepeanTyler Watt · LiberalLiberal99%10.1%Safe
- OrléansStephen Blais · LiberalLiberal>99%18.9%Safe
- Ottawa CentreCatherine McKenney · Ontario NDPNDP>99%32.4%Safe
- Ottawa SouthJohn Fraser · LiberalLiberal>99%28.6%Safe
- Ottawa West—NepeanChandra Pasma · Ontario NDPNDP>99%20.6%Safe
- Ottawa—VanierLucille Collard · LiberalLiberal>99%28.9%Safe
Eastern Ontario 8 seats
- Bay of QuinteTyler Allsopp · Progressive ConservativePC93%12.8%Safe
- Glengarry—Prescott—RussellStéphane Sarrazin · Progressive ConservativePC95%14.3%Safe
- Hastings—Lennox and AddingtonRic Bresee · Progressive ConservativePC99%18.8%Safe
- Kingston and the IslandsTed Hsu · LiberalLiberal>99%39.3%Safe
- Lanark—Frontenac—KingstonJohn Jordan · Progressive ConservativePC98%16.3%Safe
- Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau LakesSteve Clark · Progressive ConservativePC>99%27.9%Safe
- Renfrew—Nipissing—PembrokeBilly Denault · Progressive ConservativePC>99%32.7%Safe
- Stormont—Dundas—South GlengarryNolan Quinn · Progressive ConservativePC>99%42.3%Safe
Hamilton-Niagara 9 seats
- Flamborough—GlanbrookDonna Skelly · Progressive ConservativePC99%18.0%Safe
- Hamilton CentreRobin Lennox · Ontario NDPNDP>99%17.1%Safe
- Hamilton East—Stoney CreekJeff Beattie · Progressive ConservativePC85%10.5%Lean
- Hamilton MountainMonica Ciriello · Progressive ConservativePC49%5.2%Toss-up
- Hamilton West—Ancaster—DundasSandy Shaw · Ontario NDPNDP98%5.8%Safe
- Niagara CentreJeff Burch · Ontario NDPNDP97%4.8%Safe
- Niagara FallsWayne J. Gates · Ontario NDPNDP>99%20.4%Safe
- Niagara WestSam Oosterhoff · Progressive ConservativePC>99%26.4%Safe
- St. CatharinesJennie Stevens · Ontario NDPNDP99%7.0%Safe
Southwestern Ontario 23 seats
- Brantford—BrantWill Bouma · Progressive ConservativePC>99%23.8%Safe
- Bruce—Grey—Owen SoundPaul Vickers · Progressive ConservativePC96%14.7%Safe
- CambridgeBrian Riddell · Progressive ConservativePC80%9.3%Lean
- Chatham-Kent—LeamingtonTrevor Jones · Progressive ConservativePC>99%33.7%Safe
- Elgin—Middlesex—LondonRob Flack · Progressive ConservativePC>99%31.3%Safe
- EssexAnthony Leardi · Progressive ConservativePC>99%33.9%Safe
- GuelphMike Schreiner · GreenGreen>99%33.0%Safe
- Haldimand—NorfolkBobbi Ann Brady · IndependentIndependent75%39.2%Lean
- Huron—BruceLisa Thompson · Progressive ConservativePC>99%22.0%Safe
- Kitchener CentreAislinn Clancy · GreenGreen>99%27.2%Safe
- Kitchener South—HespelerJess Dixon · Progressive ConservativePC>99%19.7%Safe
- Kitchener—ConestogaMike Harris · Progressive ConservativePC91%12.1%Safe
- Lambton—Kent—MiddlesexStephen Pinsonneault · Progressive ConservativePC>99%27.3%Safe
- London North CentreTerence Kernaghan · Ontario NDPNDP>99%14.1%Safe
- London WestPeggy Sattler · Ontario NDPNDP>99%14.2%Safe
- London—FanshaweTeresa Armstrong · Ontario NDPNDP>99%13.4%Safe
- OxfordErnie Hardeman · Progressive ConservativePC>99%32.1%Safe
- Perth—WellingtonMatthew Rae · Progressive ConservativePC>99%19.5%Safe
- Sarnia—LambtonBob Bailey · Progressive ConservativePC>99%31.6%Safe
- WaterlooCatherine Fife · Ontario NDPNDP>99%22.8%Safe
- Wellington—Halton HillsJoseph Racinsky · Progressive ConservativePC99%18.1%Safe
- Windsor WestLisa Gretzky · Ontario NDPNDP>99%12.7%Safe
- Windsor—TecumsehAndrew Dowie · Progressive ConservativePC95%17.1%Safe
Central Ontario 8 seats
- Barrie—InnisfilAndrea Khanjin · Progressive ConservativePC>99%28.1%Safe
- Barrie—Springwater—Oro-MedonteDoug Downey · Progressive ConservativePC95%14.3%Safe
- Dufferin—CaledonSylvia Jones · Progressive ConservativePC>99%27.1%Safe
- Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—BrockLaurie Scott · Progressive ConservativePC>99%29.1%Safe
- Northumberland—Peterborough SouthDavid Piccini · Progressive ConservativePC99%19.7%Safe
- Peterborough—KawarthaDave Smith · Progressive ConservativeLiberalflip51%4.0%Toss-up
- Simcoe NorthJill Dunlop · Progressive ConservativePC>99%23.8%Safe
- Simcoe—GreyBrian Saunderson · Progressive ConservativePC>99%21.1%Safe
Northern Ontario 13 seats
- Algoma—ManitoulinBill Rosenberg · Progressive ConservativePC93%14.1%Safe
- Kenora—Rainy RiverGreg Rickford · Progressive ConservativePC>99%41.1%Safe
- KiiwetinoongSol Mamakwa · Ontario NDPNDP>99%36.7%Safe
- Mushkegowuk—James BayGuy Bourgouin · Ontario NDPNDP86%0.1%Lean
- Nickel BeltFrance Gélinas · Ontario NDPNDP>99%12.7%Safe
- NipissingVic Fedeli · Progressive ConservativePC>99%29.6%Safe
- Parry Sound—MuskokaGraydon Smith · Progressive ConservativePC63%5.1%Swing
- Sault Ste. MarieChris Scott · IndependentNDPflip96%0.4%Safe
- SudburyJamie West · Ontario NDPNDP99%8.1%Safe
- Thunder Bay—AtikokanKevin Holland · Progressive ConservativePC98%19.9%Safe
- Thunder Bay—Superior NorthLise Vaugeois · Ontario NDPNDP99%6.5%Safe
- Timiskaming—CochraneJohn Vanthof · Ontario NDPNDP98%6.1%Safe
- TimminsGeorge Pirie · Progressive ConservativePC>99%48.5%Safe
Source: Elections Ontario (results, and boundaries under its Open Use Data Product Licence).