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Eastern OntarioSafeRural

Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry

MPP: Nolan Quinn · Progressive Conservative

Projected winner

If an election were held today. Projection as of Nov 3, 2026; Ontario has no fixed election date, and the House must be dissolved by March 7, 2030.

Progressive Conservative>99% chance of winning

  • Progressive Conservative · 58.7% projected vote>99%

2025 result

  • Nolan Quinn · Progressive Conservativeelected23,22161.6%
  • Devon Monkhouse · Liberal7,25419.2%
  • Jeremy Rose · Ontario NDP4,72612.5%
  • Nicholas Lapierre · Green9802.6%
  • Stefan Kohut · Other8182.2%
  • Brigitte Sugrue · Other7151.9%
Margin
42.3%
Tier
Safe
Turnout
42.6%
Registered
88,432

2022 result

  • Nolan Quinn · Progressive Conservativeelected20,76657.5%
  • Kirsten J. Gardner · Liberal6,45817.9%
  • Wendy Stephen · Ontario NDP4,98213.8%
  • Claude Tardif · Other1,5384.3%
  • Jacqueline Milner · Green1,4774.1%
  • Remi Tremblay · Other8932.5%

2018 result

  • Jim McDonell · Progressive Conservativeelected26,78061.5%
  • Marc Benoit · Ontario NDP9,41621.6%
  • Heather Megill · Liberal5,38612.4%
  • Elaine Kennedy · Green1,5963.7%
  • Sabile Trimm · Other3600.8%

District at a glance

2021 Census of Population. Statistics Canada publishes no profile on Ontario's provincial districts, but the 111 southern ones share their lines with the 2013 federal ridings, so their figures are the census's own for those ridings. The 13 northern districts are built from the dissemination areas inside each one: counts are sums, medians are estimates. Ranks are against all 124 districts.

Median household income
$73,500113 of 124
Average rent
$948118 of 124
Renters
30.3%56 of 124
Bachelor's or higher
12.8%119 of 124
Median age
47.213 of 124
Over 65
24.0%18 of 124
Immigrants
7.0%112 of 124
Visible minority
5.8%100 of 124
Indigenous identity
4.5%20 of 124
Unemployment
9.6%105 of 124

Closest races in Eastern Ontario

The seats most likely to move with this one.

Source: Elections Ontario (results, and boundaries under its Open Use Data Product Licence). Census: Statistics Canada.