Bay of Quinte
MPP: Tyler Allsopp · Progressive Conservative
Projected winner
If an election were held today. Projection as of Nov 3, 2026; Ontario has no fixed election date, and the House must be dissolved by March 7, 2030.
Progressive Conservative93% chance of winning
- Progressive Conservative · 40.2% projected vote93%
- Liberal · 31.6% projected vote7%
2025 result
- Tyler Allsopp · Progressive Conservativeelected20,60644.1%
- David O'Neil · Liberal14,65231.4%
- Amanda Robertson · Ontario NDP8,79318.8%
- Lori Borthwick · Green1,6183.5%
- Anthony Zambito · Other5181.1%
- Nick Maddison · Other5011.1%
- Margin
- 12.8%
- Tier
- Lean
- Turnout
- 47.9%
- Registered
- 97,476
2024 by-election
Shown for the record. The projection starts from the 2025 general election instead; where a by-election since then changed the seat's party, the new member's personal vote is added to that party.
- Tyler Allsopp · Progressive Conservativeelected14,43038.7%
- Sean Kelly · Liberal12,42833.3%
- Amanda Robertson · Ontario NDP8,60623.1%
- Lori Borthwick · Green1,1863.2%
- Margaret Schuler · Other3691.0%
- John Turmel · Independent1490.4%
- Mark Snow · Other1290.3%
2022 result
- Todd Smith · Progressive Conservativeelected21,38149.3%
- Alison Kelly · Ontario NDP9,07320.9%
- Emilie Leneveu · Liberal8,00318.4%
- Erica Charlton · Green2,7196.3%
- Rob Collins · Other1,1282.6%
- Noah Wales · Other1,0622.5%
2018 result
- Todd Smith · Progressive Conservativeelected24,22448.0%
- Joanne Belanger · Ontario NDP16,06331.8%
- Robert Quaiff · Liberal7,51114.9%
- Mark Daye · Green1,7303.4%
- Cindy Davidson · Other3960.8%
- Paul Bordonaro · Independent3790.8%
- James Engelsman · Other1390.3%
District at a glance
2021 Census of Population. Statistics Canada publishes no profile on Ontario's provincial districts, but the 111 southern ones share their lines with the 2013 federal ridings, so their figures are the census's own for those ridings. The 13 northern districts are built from the dissemination areas inside each one: counts are sums, medians are estimates. Ranks are against all 124 districts.
- Median household income
- $76,000103 of 124
- Average rent
- $1,11495 of 124
- Renters
- 30.8%53 of 124
- Bachelor's or higher
- 16.3%101 of 124
- Median age
- 48.411 of 124
- Over 65
- 25.6%9 of 124
- Immigrants
- 8.8%101 of 124
- Visible minority
- 6.2%99 of 124
- Indigenous identity
- 5.0%19 of 124
- Unemployment
- 11.3%80 of 124
Closest races in Eastern Ontario
The seats most likely to move with this one.
Source: Elections Ontario (results, and boundaries under its Open Use Data Product Licence). Census: Statistics Canada.