Your district
Find your district, and who represents it.
Your MPP, how your district voted in 2025, and what the polls point to there now.
The House today
Progressive Conservative majority
Progressive Conservative: 79 of 124 seats. A majority is 63.
No election has been called, and Ontario has no fixed election date: the House elected in February 2025 must be dissolved by March 7, 2030, and an election can be called at any time before then.
Who governs
Since the 2025 election, 1 seat has changed party.
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Our Ontario coverage as the polls move, plus a profile of every federal riding, one at a time.
- The 343A profile of every riding: the place, the people who have represented it, what decides it.
- Field NotesLong-form analysis of what is moving, and why.
- When things moveA note when the model shifts, new polls land or a riding flips.
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If an election were held today
Nov 2, 2026Progressive Conservative majority
73% chance of a majority · 68 of 124 seats expected
56–80 seats in 80% of simulations · 63 needed
- Progressive Conservative majority73%
- Progressive Conservative most seats, no majority26%
- Liberal most seats, no majority<1%
No fixed election date: the House must be dissolved by March 7, 2030
Too close to call
- Hamilton MountainProgressive Conservative vs LiberalPC49%Liberal35%
- Peterborough—KawarthaLiberal vs Progressive ConservativeLiberal51%PC49%
- Mississauga—LakeshoreLiberal vs Progressive ConservativeLiberal51%PC49%
- OakvilleLiberal vs Progressive ConservativeLiberal51%PC49%
- Mississauga—StreetsvilleProgressive Conservative vs LiberalPC53%Liberal47%
- Mississauga East—CooksvilleLiberal vs Progressive ConservativeLiberal54%PC46%
How close 2025 was
17 districts were decided by under five points, and 40 by under ten. Small moves in the provincial vote move seats. See how the average is built.
Where the polls stand
Every provincial poll since the 2025 election, each corrected for its firm's lean against the others, then averaged by recency and sample size.
PC ahead by 8.8 points
The average on Nov 2, 2026: PC 39.5% · Liberal 30.7% · NDP 21.8%
- In today's average
- 4 polls
- Weighted by recency and sample size
- Since the 2025 election
- 49 polls
- From 11 firms
Latest polls
What you can do here
Map
124 districts by projected winner.All 124 districts, coloured by projected winner, with the win probability behind every one.
Open the map →Polls
Every poll, and the average.Every provincial poll, and the weighted average built from them.
See the polls →Legislature
Standings and the cabinet.Standings in the 124-seat Legislative Assembly and who holds each cabinet portfolio.
See the House →Districts
2025 results, district by district.The certified 2025 result, the margin, and the census profile for every district.
Browse districts →Projections are a swing model over the certified 2025 result, not a poll of polls dressed up as seats.
How the average is built →Data sources
Elections Ontario · Statistics Canada 2021 Census · Wikipedia (polls) · 338Canada (regions)
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