Peterborough—Kawartha
MPP: Dave Smith · Progressive Conservative
Projected winner
If an election were held today. Projection as of Nov 2, 2026; Ontario has no fixed election date, and the House must be dissolved by March 7, 2030.
Liberal51% chance of winning
- Liberal · 37.1% projected vote51%
- Progressive Conservative · 36.9% projected vote49%
2025 result
- Dave Smith · Progressive Conservativeelected22,41740.7%
- Adam Hopkins · Liberal20,21736.7%
- Jen Deck · Ontario NDP9,29016.9%
- Lucas Graham · Green1,7453.2%
- Andrew Roudny · Other8591.6%
- Brian Martindale · Other5811.1%
- Margin
- 4.0%
- Tier
- Toss-up
- Turnout
- 52.0%
- Registered
- 106,046
2022 result
- Dave Smith · Progressive Conservativeelected20,20538.6%
- Greg Dempsey · Liberal15,99830.6%
- Jen Deck · Ontario NDP11,19621.4%
- Tom Marazzo · Other1,9723.8%
- Robert Gibson · Green1,9143.6%
- Rebecca Quinnell · Other1,0882.1%
2018 result
- Dave Smith · Progressive Conservativeelected22,90437.7%
- Sean Conway · Ontario NDP20,51833.8%
- Jeff Leal · Liberal14,94624.6%
- Gianne Broughton · Green2,0243.3%
- Jacob William Currier · Other2450.4%
- Ken Ranney · Other1530.3%
District at a glance
2021 Census of Population. Statistics Canada publishes no profile on Ontario's provincial districts, but the 111 southern ones share their lines with the 2013 federal ridings, so their figures are the census's own for those ridings. The 13 northern districts are built from the dissemination areas inside each one: counts are sums, medians are estimates. Ranks are against all 124 districts.
- Median household income
- $76,000105 of 124
- Average rent
- $1,19782 of 124
- Renters
- 30.1%57 of 124
- Bachelor's or higher
- 21.7%78 of 124
- Median age
- 46.815 of 124
- Over 65
- 25.7%8 of 124
- Immigrants
- 9.0%99 of 124
- Visible minority
- 7.1%95 of 124
- Indigenous identity
- 5.0%17 of 124
- Unemployment
- 13.4%31 of 124
Closest races in Central Ontario
The seats most likely to move with this one.
Source: Elections Ontario (results, and boundaries under its Open Use Data Product Licence). Census: Statistics Canada.