Your division
Find your division, and who represents it.
Your MLA, how your division voted in 2023, and what the polls point to there now.
The House today
Manitoba NDP majority
Manitoba NDP: 34 of 57 seats. A majority is 29.
No election has been called. The next general election is set by law for Tuesday, October 5, 2027, 336 days from now, and can be called sooner.
Who governs
Since the 2023 election, 4 seats have changed party.
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Our Manitoba coverage as the polls move, plus a profile of every federal riding, one at a time.
- The 343A profile of every riding: the place, the people who have represented it, what decides it.
- Field NotesLong-form analysis of what is moving, and why.
- When things moveA note when the model shifts, new polls land or a riding flips.
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If an election were held today
Nov 2, 2026Manitoba NDP majority
>99% chance of a majority · 43 of 57 seats expected
40–46 seats in 80% of simulations · 29 needed
- Manitoba NDP majority>99%
Election set for Tuesday, October 5, 2027
Too close to call
- Fort WhyteLiberal vs Progressive ConservativeLiberal43%PC35%
- Lac du BonnetManitoba NDP vs Progressive ConservativeNDP68%PC32%
- Red River NorthManitoba NDP vs Progressive ConservativeNDP73%PC27%
- Portage la PrairieProgressive Conservative vs Manitoba NDPPC83%NDP17%
- Springfield-RitchotManitoba NDP vs Progressive ConservativeNDP83%PC17%
- Riding MountainProgressive Conservative vs Manitoba NDPPC84%NDP16%
How close 2023 was
7 divisions were decided by under five points, and 15 by under ten. Small moves in the provincial vote move seats. See how the average is built.
Where the polls stand
Every provincial poll since the 2023 election, each corrected for its firm's lean against the others, then averaged by recency and sample size.
NDP ahead by 27.2 points
The average on Nov 2, 2026: NDP 57.9% · PC 30.7% · Liberal 7.1%
- In today's average
- 3 polls
- Weighted by recency and sample size
- Since the 2023 election
- 14 polls
- From 3 firms
Latest polls
What you can do here
Map
57 divisions by projected winner.All 57 divisions, coloured by projected winner, with the win probability behind every one.
Open the map →Polls
Every poll, and the average.Every provincial poll, and the weighted average built from them.
See the polls →Legislature
Standings and the cabinet.Standings in the 57-seat Legislative Assembly and who holds each cabinet portfolio.
See the House →Divisions
2023 results, division by division.The certified 2023 result, the margin, and the census profile for every division.
Browse divisions →Projections are a swing model over the certified 2023 result, not a poll of polls dressed up as seats.
How the average is built →Data sources
Elections Manitoba (results and boundaries) · Manitoba Bureau of Statistics (the 2021 Census division profiles) · Wikipedia (polls)
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