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The Northern Vibe Project

We started by building a seat forecast. Then a harder question surfaced: not who wins the next election, but who answers for the country in between. Our goal is to make accountability visible, which is why we always ask: who governs, and who answers for it, riding by riding.

It is an independent effort to make Canadian politics easier to follow, for everyone, not just political scientists.

It began with the federal picture and now covers 7 provinces as well, each with its own polling average and its own projection for its legislature. More are coming.

It brings together three things:

  • The Platform at northernvibe.ca, where you can explore how public opinion translates into seats in the House of Commons and in provincial legislatures.
  • The Publication, where we tell the stories behind the numbers in The 343 and Field Notes.
  • Collaborations: partner projects that extend the work beyond our own tools.

Northern Vibe also makes it easy to reach your representative. Find your riding on the map to see past election results, census demographics, local news, and your MP's contact information.

By the numbers

0
ridings simulated
0
elections per live scenario
0
national and local news outlets monitored
0.0%
of ridings called right · tested on the 2025 election

The Platform

The interactive tools at northernvibe.ca. Everything below is live and free to explore.

Simulation Map

Every one of Canada's 343 ridings gets its own projection. Drag a scenario slider and watch seats shift in real time.

Open the map →

Parliament

See how 343 seats divide across parties and provinces under any scenario. Explore the hemicycle, which ridings are most competitive, what flipped from today, and how the Cabinet would be affected.

View Parliament →

Accountability

Thousands of Canadian political headlines are read and scored daily. Watch the media narrative shift and see how it moves the numbers.

View accountability →

Issues Tracker

What do Canadians actually care about? Weekly Nanos/CTV polling — plus Angus Reid and Environics — tracks which issues are rising or falling in the public mind: cost of living, the economy, healthcare, and Canada-US relations.

Track the issues →

Forecast

Every published national poll, averaged and corrected for each firm's house effect, then carried forward 1, 3 and 6 months by a Bayesian model of economic indicators, with calibrated uncertainty bands.

View the forecast →

Provincial coverage

Each province is its own build: real district boundaries, the certified result in every one, the parties that actually run there, and a polling average drawn from its own surveys. That is why they arrive one at a time.

How the model works →

Partner Project

A separate site we help build. Now open to everyone.

VoteLabNow live

VoteLab lets you experiment with how different voting systems, like proportional representation, ranked-choice, and mixed-member, would reshape real Canadian election results. A partner project with Springtide and Fair Voting BC.

Open VoteLab →

The Publication

The stories behind the numbers, in two ongoing series.

The 343

A riding-by-riding tour of the country, one dispatch at a time, digging into the local dynamics, history, and demographics behind each of Canada's 343 seats.

Introducing The 343: Halifax, NS
1/343Jun 17, 2026

Introducing The 343: Halifax, NS

Where the riding-by-riding series begins, one seat at a time.

Read →

Field Notes

Longer-form analysis on the forces shaping the numbers: polling shifts, the economy, the media narrative, and what the model is picking up week to week.

Who you vote for may depend on whether you own your home
May 12, 2026

Who you vote for may depend on whether you own your home

The sharpest divide in Canadian electoral politics might be your mortgage.

Read →
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The Team

Matt

Matt Hickey

Founder and Data Analyst · Halifax, NS

Built Northern Vibe out of frustration with election coverage that reduces complex riding-by-riding dynamics to a single national poll number. The map tells a richer story.

PhD Biomedical Engineering, University of British Columbia

Caitlin

Caitlin Griffiths

Co-Founder and Political Analyst · Halifax, NS

Passionate about how politics shapes people's lives, and making that story easier to follow. Digs into riding-level dynamics and local context so readers can better understand the nuances.

International Development and Social Anthropology, Dalhousie University

Questions about the methodology? Media inquiries? Just want to talk Canadian politics?

We'd love to hear from you. See our FAQ for common questions.

contact@northernvibe.ca

Support Northern Vibe

Northern Vibe is independent and free. Subscribe to the newsletter, make a donation, or just spread the word.

Will always be ad-free.

Contribute →

Photo credits

Party leader portraits on the British Columbia pages.

Party leader portraits on the Nova Scotia pages.

Nova Scotia district boundaries and election results: Elections Nova Scotia. Census figures: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census of Population.

Party leader portraits on the Prince Edward Island pages.

  • Prince Edward Island district boundaries: Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Prince Edward Island.
  • Prince Edward Island election results: Contains information licenced under the Elections PEI Open Data Licence.
  • Prince Edward Island census figures: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census of Population.

Party leader portraits on the Alberta pages.

  • Alberta election results: Elections Alberta.
  • Alberta division boundaries, and the 2021 Census profile of the 87 divisions from the Office of Statistics and Information: Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Alberta.
  • Alberta polls: compiled from Wikipedia's articles on Alberta's general elections since 2015.

Party leader portraits on the Saskatchewan pages.

  • Saskatchewan election results and constituency boundaries: Elections Saskatchewan.
  • Saskatchewan census profiles: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census of Population, combined into constituencies by NorthernVibe, under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
  • Saskatchewan polls: compiled from Wikipedia's articles on Saskatchewan's general elections since 2016.

Party leader portraits on the Ontario pages.

  • Ontario election results: Source: Elections Ontario.
  • Ontario district boundaries: Elections Ontario, under its Open Use Data Product Licence.
  • Ontario census figures: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census of Population.
  • Ontario polls: the lists of published polls in Wikipedia's articles on each Ontario general election.
  • Ontario regions: 338Canada's eight, district by district from its regional pages.

Party leader portraits on the Manitoba pages.

  • Manitoba election results and division boundaries: Elections Manitoba.
  • Manitoba census figures: the 2021 Census profile of each of the 57 divisions, from the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics.
  • Manitoba polls: compiled from Wikipedia's articles on Manitoba's general elections since 2016.
  • Manitoba regions: Antony Hodgson's four, from VoteLab.