Manitoba polls
Provincial voting intention. Every poll from the past six months counts, weighted by its decided sample and by how recent it is. No firm is corrected for a house effect.
Trend
The average over the past two years. The band around each line is the uncertainty on that average, which is the part worth reading: where two bands overlap, the order of those two parties is not established.
Weighted average
as of Nov 2, 2026- NDP57.9%
- PC30.7%
- Liberal7.1%
- Green1.4%
- Other2.9%
Every poll from the past 180 days counts, weighted by its decided sample and by how recent it is, losing half its weight every 90 days; a poll a party commissioned counts at half weight. Manitoba is polled about once a quarter, mostly by one series, Probe Research's for the Winnipeg Free Press (under the Abacus Data name since Abacus bought Probe in August 2026), so the window reaches back far enough to hold the three most recent polls. With one series making up most of the polls there is no other firm to measure its lean against, so no house effect is applied. The Keystone Party is counted in Others.
Since the 2023 election (14 polls)
- Abacus DataSep 14, 2026
NDP 60PC 29Liberal 7Green 1Keystone 2Other 11000 respondents
- Probe ResearchJun 8, 2026
NDP 55PC 32Liberal 8Green 2Keystone 2Other 21000 respondents
- Probe ResearchMar 17, 2026
NDP 55PC 35Liberal 6Green 2Keystone 1Other 11000 respondents
- Probe ResearchDec 10, 2025
NDP 53PC 32Liberal 9Green 4Keystone 2Other 01000 respondents
- Angus ReidDec 1, 2025
NDP 45PC 46Liberal 7Green 1Other 1315 respondents
- Probe ResearchSep 14, 2025
NDP 53PC 34Liberal 8Green 4Keystone 1Other 11000 respondents
- Angus ReidSep 5, 2025
NDP 48PC 41Liberal 10Green 0Other 2334 respondents
- Probe ResearchJun 10, 2025
NDP 57PC 32Liberal 8Green 1Keystone 2Other 01000 respondents
- Probe ResearchMar 16, 2025
NDP 57PC 33Liberal 8Green 1Keystone 1Other 01000 respondents
- Probe ResearchDec 10, 2024
NDP 53PC 34Liberal 6Green 2Keystone 2Other 21000 respondents
- Probe ResearchSep 15, 2024
NDP 56PC 34Liberal 4Green 1Keystone 3Other 11000 respondents
- Probe ResearchJun 9, 2024
NDP 51PC 38Liberal 6Green 1Keystone 1Other 11000 respondents
- Probe ResearchMar 18, 2024
NDP 49PC 37Liberal 8Green 2Keystone 1Other 21000 respondents
- Probe ResearchDec 1, 2023
NDP 51PC 38Liberal 7Green 2Keystone 1Other 11000 respondents
| Firm | Field dates | NDP | PC | Liberal | Green | Keystone | Other | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abacus Data | Aug 28, 2026 – Sep 14, 2026 | 60 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1000 |
| Probe Research | May 25, 2026 – Jun 8, 2026 | 55 | 32 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1000 |
| Probe Research | Mar 1, 2026 – Mar 17, 2026 | 55 | 35 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1000 |
| Probe Research | Nov 25, 2025 – Dec 10, 2025 | 53 | 32 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1000 |
| Angus Reid | Nov 26, 2025 – Dec 1, 2025 | 45 | 46 | 7 | 1 | – | 1 | 315 |
| Probe Research | Sep 4, 2025 – Sep 14, 2025 | 53 | 34 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1000 |
| Angus Reid | Aug 28, 2025 – Sep 5, 2025 | 48 | 41 | 10 | 0 | – | 2 | 334 |
| Probe Research | May 28, 2025 – Jun 10, 2025 | 57 | 32 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1000 |
| Probe Research | Mar 4, 2025 – Mar 16, 2025 | 57 | 33 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1000 |
| Probe Research | Nov 26, 2024 – Dec 10, 2024 | 53 | 34 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1000 |
| Probe Research | Sep 5, 2024 – Sep 15, 2024 | 56 | 34 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1000 |
| Probe Research | May 28, 2024 – Jun 9, 2024 | 51 | 38 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1000 |
| Probe Research | Mar 5, 2024 – Mar 18, 2024 | 49 | 37 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1000 |
| Probe Research | Nov 22, 2023 – Dec 1, 2023 | 51 | 38 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1000 |
A dash means the party was not offered as an option in that poll, which is different from polling at zero. Keystone has its own column where a pollster names it, but the average counts it in Others.