Nova Scotia polls
Provincial voting intention. Each poll is corrected for its firm's measured house effect, then weighted by recency and sample size.
Trend
The house-effect-corrected average over the past two years. The band around each line is the uncertainty on that average, which is the part worth reading: where two bands overlap, the order of those two parties is not established.
Weighted average
as of Oct 11, 2026- PC35.1%
- NDP33.3%
- Liberal25.9%
- Green1.4%
- Other4.2%
Each firm counts once, through its latest poll. Weights combine a recency decay with a 30-day half-life and the poll's sample size, over a 90-day window: Nova Scotia is polled about once a month between elections, so a campaign's seven-day half-life would let the newest poll stand in for the whole average. When fewer than three firms have published in the window, the average reaches back to the three most recent.
Since the 2024 election (13 polls)
| Firm | Field dates | PC | NDP | Liberal | Green | Other | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Narrative Research | Sep 16, 2026 – Sep 28, 2026 | 31 | 36 | 28 | 1 | 4 | 741 |
| Abacus Data | Aug 28, 2026 – Sep 5, 2026 | 40 | 33 | 22 | 1 | 5 | 600 |
| MQO Research | Jul 3, 2026 – Jul 9, 2026 | 38 | 22 | 34 | 4 | 1 | 632 |
| Abacus Data | Jun 25, 2026 – Jul 2, 2026 | 40 | 31 | 22 | 3 | 5 | 600 |
| Narrative Research | Jun 10, 2026 – Jun 17, 2026 | 29 | 45 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 733 |
| Abacus Data | May 11, 2026 – May 14, 2026 | 38 | 31 | 23 | 3 | 5 | 610 |
| Viewpoints Research | Apr 24, 2026 – Apr 26, 2026 | 37 | 36 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 803 |
| Abacus Data | Jan 21, 2026 – Jan 28, 2026 | 48 | 25 | 18 | 2 | 7 | 601 |
| Liaison Strategies | Jan 4, 2026 – Jan 6, 2026 | 50 | 31 | 18 | – | 2 | 800 |
| Angus Reid | Nov 26, 2025 – Dec 1, 2025 | 47 | 35 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 296 |
| Abacus Data | Sep 16, 2025 – Sep 18, 2025 | 52 | 23 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 600 |
| Abacus Data | May 23, 2025 – May 29, 2025 | 55 | 22 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 800 |
| Abacus Data | Mar 17, 2025 – Mar 20, 2025 | 56 | 26 | 13 | 4 | – | 600 |
A dash means the party was not offered as an option in that poll, which is different from polling at zero.
House effects
Each firm's final-week polls in 2017, 2021 and 2024 against the certified result, averaged within each election and then across them, shrunk toward zero when few elections support them.
Between elections, only each firm's lean relative to the others is applied. The error they share (every firm ran the PCs low in the final week of 2017, 2021 and 2024) is added back once a campaign starts.
| Firm | PC | NDP | Liberal | Green | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abacus Data | -0.23 | +0.62 | -0.09 | -0.31 | -0.18 |
| Forum Research | -0.45 | – | +0.37 | +0.28 | -0.24 |
| Liaison Strategies | +0.77 | -0.38 | -0.75 | – | +0.09 |
| Mainstreet Research | +0.65 | -0.34 | -0.63 | +0.15 | +0.76 |
| MQO Research | +0.77 | -0.71 | -0.09 | – | -0.24 |
| Narrative Research | -1.53 | +0.85 | +1.20 | -0.18 | -0.18 |
A positive figure means the firm's final polls ran that party high against the certified result, so the correction subtracts it. Nova Scotia offers three completed elections to calibrate against, so these are directional, not precise.