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Newfoundland and Labrador polls

Provincial voting intention. Every poll from the past six months counts, weighted by its decided sample and by how recent it is, and the window reaches back to hold at least three polls. Each firm's lean against the others is taken out first.

Trend

The average over the past two years. The band around each line is the uncertainty on that average, which is the part worth reading: where two bands overlap, the order of those two parties is not established.

Weighted average

as of Nov 3, 2026
  • Liberal40.6%
  • PC33.4%
  • NDP24.1%
  • Other1.9%

Every poll from the past 180 days counts, weighted by its decided sample and by how recent it is, losing half its weight every 90 days; a poll a party commissioned counts at half weight. Newfoundland and Labrador has been polled three times since the October 2025 election, by two firms, with samples of 180 to 240, so the window reaches back far enough to hold the three most recent polls, which today is all of them. Each firm's lean against the other firms polling the province at the same time is taken out first (see House effects below), and the range around each party is as wide as three small polls warrant.

Since the 2025 election (3 polls)

A dash means the party was not offered as an option in that poll, which is different from polling at zero.

House effects

Each polling house is compared with the other firms polling Newfoundland and Labrador within three weeks either side, in every cycle on file, each other firm counted once. Its average gap, shrunk toward zero when few of its polls could be compared, is its lean against the average firm. Corporate Research Associates' polls count as Narrative Research's.

The correction subtracts that lean, moving the split among the named parties and leaving Others alone. No election result enters: the final polls have missed by five to twelve points in both directions, and that record widens the projection's uncertainty rather than moving the average.

  • Angus Reid 4 polls compared

    PC +5.05Liberal -4.03NDP -2.10

  • Narrative Research 7 polls compared

    PC -4.70Liberal +3.40NDP +2.54

A positive figure means the house runs that party above the firms polling beside it, so the correction subtracts it. Only the houses polling this cycle are listed.