BC polls
Provincial voting intention. Each poll is corrected for its firm's measured house effect, then weighted by recency and sample size.
Trend
The house-effect-corrected average over the past year. The band around each line is the uncertainty on that average, which is the part worth reading: where two bands overlap, the order of those two parties is not established.
Weighted average
as of 2026-10-11- Conservative42.0%
- BC NDP38.9%
- BC Green10.0%
- OneBC3.7%
- CentreBC3.1%
- Other2.2%
Weights combine exponential recency decay with a 7-day half-life and an inverse-variance term, so a larger and more recent poll counts for more. Parties are averaged only over the polls that offered them, then the set is renormalised to 100.
Current campaign (49 polls)
| Firm | Field dates | Conservative | NDP | Green | OneBC | CentreBC | Other | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liaison Strategies | 2026-10-07 – 2026-10-08 | 43 | 37 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1000 |
| Angus Reid | 2026-10-01 – 2026-10-03 | 48 | 43 | 7 | — | — | 2 | 1013 |
| Mainstreet Research | 2026-09-30 – 2026-10-01 | 45 | 37 | 11 | 6 | 1 | — | 827 |
| Pollara | 2026-09-23 – 2026-09-30 | 38 | 38 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3017 |
| Ipsos | 2026-09-25 – 2026-09-29 | 42 | 40 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1001 |
| Innovative Research | 2026-09-25 – 2026-09-28 | 39 | 41 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 500 |
| Léger | 2026-09-24 – 2026-09-28 | 39 | 36 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1003 |
| Liaison Strategies | 2026-09-26 – 2026-09-27 | 40 | 39 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1000 |
| Angus Reid | 2026-09-22 – 2026-09-24 | 43 | 35 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 801 |
| Liaison Strategies | 2026-09-21 – 2026-09-22 | 36 | 41 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1000 |
| Innovative Research | 2026-09-04 – 2026-09-18 | 39 | 43 | 14 | — | — | 4 | 500 |
| Angus Reid | 2026-09-08 – 2026-09-15 | 37 | 41 | 13 | — | — | 9 | 749 |
| Ipsos | 2026-09-08 – 2026-09-14 | 35 | 45 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 800 |
| Research Co. | 2026-08-12 – 2026-08-14 | 39 | 44 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 801 |
| 604 Polling | 2026-07-31 – 2026-08-08 | 45 | 35 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1124 |
| Yorkville Strategies | 2026-07-28 – 2026-08-03 | 40 | 46 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1016 |
| Fairview Strategy | 2026-07-06 – 2026-07-17 | 40 | 44 | 12 | — | — | 5 | 896 |
| Angus Reid | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-12 | 47 | 36 | 11 | — | — | 6 | 755 |
| Research Co. | 2026-06-03 – 2026-06-05 | 42 | 42 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 803 |
| Léger | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-02 | 45 | 41 | 8 | — | — | 6 | 1002 |
| Angus Reid | 2026-04-24 – 2026-04-28 | 46 | 36 | 13 | — | — | 4 | 804 |
| Mainstreet Research | 2026-04-09 – 2026-04-13 | 33 | 38 | 16 | 11 | — | 2 | 1275 |
| Léger | 2026-04-03 – 2026-04-06 | 40 | 44 | 10 | 3 | — | 4 | 1003 |
| Angus Reid | 2026-03-11 – 2026-03-17 | 44 | 42 | 9 | — | — | 7 | 499 |
| Mainstreet Research | 2026-03-11 – 2026-03-13 | 37 | 39 | 12 | — | — | 13 | 1054 |
| Innovative Research | 2026-02-06 – 2026-03-03 | 47 | 39 | 10 | — | — | 4 | 991 |
| Pallas Data | 2026-02-12 – 2026-02-27 | 40 | 42 | 11 | 5 | — | 2 | 1256 |
| One Persuasion | 2026-02-21 – 2026-02-24 | 41 | 37 | 11 | 6 | — | 5 | 1005 |
| Pallas Data | 2026-02-12 – 2026-02-14 | 37 | 42 | 13 | 6 | — | 2 | 988 |
| Léger | 2026-02-06 – 2026-02-09 | 39 | 44 | 9 | 5 | — | 2 | 1007 |
| Léger | 2026-01-23 – 2026-01-26 | 38 | 44 | 9 | 6 | — | 3 | 1003 |
| Mainstreet Research | 2025-12-17 – 2025-12-18 | 41 | 41 | 10 | 7 | — | — | 1902 |
| Pallas Data | 2025-12-11 – 2025-12-13 | 39 | 44 | 9 | 7 | — | 1 | 923 |
| Angus Reid | 2025-11-26 – 2025-12-01 | 40 | 43 | 11 | — | — | 8 | 463 |
| EKOS Research | 2025-11-20 – 2025-11-25 | 35 | 44 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 889 |
| Yorkville Strategies | 2025-11-24 – 2025-11-25 | 42 | 40 | 8 | 5 | — | 4 | 600 |
| Angus Reid | 2025-10-23 – 2025-10-25 | 41 | 40 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1044 |
| Abacus Data | 2025-10-09 – 2025-10-15 | 40 | 47 | 8 | 1 | 3 | — | 1000 |
| Léger | 2025-10-10 – 2025-10-12 | 38 | 48 | 8 | — | — | 7 | 1035 |
| Cardinal Research | 2025-10-04 – 2025-10-06 | 41 | 43 | 10 | 4 | — | 3 | 1088 |
| Research Co. | 2025-10-01 – 2025-10-03 | 38 | 44 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 801 |
| Angus Reid | 2025-08-28 – 2025-09-05 | 44 | 42 | 10 | — | — | 4 | 811 |
| Mainstreet Research | 2025-06-23 – 2025-06-24 | 44 | 41 | 7 | — | — | 8 | 943 |
| Research Co. | 2025-06-07 – 2025-06-09 | 42 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 803 |
| Léger | 2025-05-23 – 2025-05-25 | 39 | 45 | 11 | — | — | 5 | 1032 |
| Liaison Strategies | 2025-05-02 – 2025-05-04 | 47 | 45 | 7 | — | — | 2 | 800 |
| Research Co. | 2025-03-03 – 2025-03-05 | 42 | 44 | 11 | — | — | 3 | 802 |
| Pallas Data | 2025-02-15 | 41 | 49 | 8 | — | — | 3 | 677 |
| Léger | 2025-01-24 – 2025-01-26 | 42 | 44 | 10 | — | — | 4 | 1001 |
A dash means the party was not offered as an option in that poll, which is different from polling at zero.
House effects
Signed error of each firm's final-week polls against the certified result, averaged within each of the 2017, 2020 and 2024 provincial elections first, then across them, and shrunk toward zero by how few elections support it. The Conservative correction uses 2024 only: in 2020 the BC Conservatives were a 1.9% party, not the main opposition.
| Firm | NDP | CON | GRN | LIB | OTH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angus Reid | -0.38 | -1.10 | +0.58 | +0.20 | -0.20 |
| Forum Research | -1.16 | — | +1.12 | -0.32 | -0.17 |
| Insights West | +0.23 | — | +0.07 | +0.20 | — |
| Ipsos | +0.42 | -0.43 | +0.18 | -0.30 | -0.20 |
| Justason Market Intelligence | -1.77 | — | +2.07 | -0.63 | — |
| Léger | +0.10 | -0.43 | -0.07 | +0.73 | -0.20 |
| Liaison Strategies | -0.63 | +0.57 | +0.60 | — | -0.20 |
| Mainstreet Research | -0.45 | +0.42 | +1.36 | -1.15 | +0.32 |
| Pallas Data | -0.47 | -0.60 | +1.10 | — | — |
| Pollara | -0.97 | -1.10 | +1.60 | — | +0.47 |
| Research Co. | +0.47 | -0.77 | +0.30 | +0.40 | -0.20 |
| Spark Insights | -0.97 | -1.10 | +1.27 | — | +1.13 |
A positive figure means the firm's final polls ran that party high against the certified result, so the correction subtracts it. Effects are shrunk toward zero when few observations support them — BC offers three completed elections to calibrate against, so these are directional, not precise.