If a provincial election were held today
Conservative majority
73% chance of a majority · 52 of 93 seats expected
Outcome odds
- Conservative majority73%
- BC NDP majority19%
- Conservative most seats, no majority4%
- BC NDP most seats, no majority3%
- Tie for most seats1%
Seats won
bar = 80% range▲▼ change from seats held today47 to govern
- Conservative52▲1616 seats more than it holds today40–63 likelyLorne Doerkson
more likely than not to win a majority
BC NDP39▼88 seats fewer than it holds today28–50 likelyDavid Eby
BC Green21–3 likelyEmily Lowan
OneBC0▼22 seats fewer than it holds today0–1 likelyDallas Brodie
CentreBC0▼11 seat fewer than it holds today0–1 likelyElenore Sturko
Districts projected to change party
(16)Districts where the projected winner is a different party from the one holding the seat now. Left dot is who holds it, right is who takes it. Several are seats whose member has left their caucus since 2024, so the projection returns them to the party that won them.
DistrictChangeChance
Projected change
Paler = too close to call
52▲ 16 vs today
39▼ 8 vs today
2