If an election were held today
Liberal majority
97% chance of a majority · 30 of 49 seats expected
Outcome odds, if an election were held today
- Liberal majority97%
- Liberal most seats, no majority2%
Election set for Monday, October 16, 2028
Seats won
bar = 80% range▲▼ change from seats held today25 to govern
- Liberal30▼11 seat fewer than it holds today26–33 likelySusan Holt
virtually certain to win a majority
PC17▲11 seat more than it holds today13–20 likelyDaniel Allain (not an MLA)
Green22–3 likelyDavid Coon
NDP00–0 likelyAlex White
Projected on the 49 electoral districts of the 2023 map, first used in 2024 and in force for the 2028 election. The 2020 figures are moved onto this map from the old one by NorthernVibe.
Projected change
Paler = too close to call
30▼ 1 vs today
17▲ 1 vs today
2