New Brunswick polls
Provincial voting intention. Every poll from the past six months counts, weighted by its decided sample and by how recent it is, once each firm's lean against the others is taken out.
Trend
The average over the past two years. The band around each line is the uncertainty on that average, which is the part worth reading: where two bands overlap, the order of those two parties is not established.
Weighted average
as of Nov 3, 2026- Liberal44.4%
- PC31.9%
- Green13.6%
- NDP5.5%
- Other4.7%
Every poll from the past 180 days counts, weighted by its decided sample and by how recent it is, losing half its weight every 90 days; a poll a party commissioned counts at half weight. New Brunswick is polled a few times a year, by four firms since the 2024 election and by none of them regularly, so the window reaches back far enough to hold the three most recent polls. Each firm's lean against the other firms polling New Brunswick at the same time is taken out first (see House effects below). The Libertarians are counted in Others.
Since the 2024 election (7 polls)
- Narrative ResearchSep 28, 2026
Liberal 46PC 30Green 13NDP 7Libertarian 3Other 1506 respondents
- Abacus DataAug 7, 2026
Liberal 45PC 31Green 14NDP 4Other 5601 respondents
- Narrative ResearchJun 17, 2026
Liberal 41PC 30Green 13NDP 6Libertarian 9Other 1495 respondents
- Porter O'BrienJun 3, 2026
Liberal 43PC 39Green 13Other 5802 respondents
- Angus ReidDec 1, 2025
Liberal 49PC 32Green 11NDP 4Other 5203 respondents
- Porter O'BrienNov 25, 2025
Liberal 49PC 40Green 8Other 3813 respondents
- Abacus DataOct 30, 2025
Liberal 53PC 29Green 11NDP 3Other 3600 respondents
| Firm | Field dates | Liberal | PC | Green | NDP | Libertarian | Other | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Narrative Research | Sep 28, 2026 | 46 | 30 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 506 |
| Abacus Data | Aug 7, 2026 | 45 | 31 | 14 | 4 | – | 5 | 601 |
| Narrative Research | Jun 17, 2026 | 41 | 30 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 495 |
| Porter O'Brien | Jun 3, 2026 | 43 | 39 | 13 | – | – | 5 | 802 |
| Angus Reid | Dec 1, 2025 | 49 | 32 | 11 | 4 | – | 5 | 203 |
| Porter O'Brien | Nov 25, 2025 | 49 | 40 | 8 | – | – | 3 | 813 |
| Abacus Data | Oct 30, 2025 | 53 | 29 | 11 | 3 | – | 3 | 600 |
A dash means the party was not offered as an option in that poll, which is different from polling at zero. The Libertarians have their own column where a pollster names them, but the average counts them in Others.
House effects
Each polling house is compared with the other firms polling New Brunswick within three weeks either side, in every cycle on file, each other firm counted once. Its average gap, shrunk toward zero when few of its polls could be compared, is its lean against the average firm. Corporate Research Associates' polls count as Narrative Research's.
The correction subtracts that lean, moving the split among the named parties and leaving the Libertarians and Others alone. No election result enters, so an error every firm shares (the final-week polls ran the Liberals low in 2018, 2020 and 2024) does not move the average; it widens the projection's uncertainty.
Angus Reid 4 polls compared
Liberal -0.48PC -1.75Green +0.52NDP -1.34
Narrative Research 13 polls compared
Liberal +1.74PC -0.09Green -0.73NDP +1.00
Porter O'Brien 2 polls compared
Liberal +0.29PC +3.02Green -0.48NDP –
| Firm | Polls compared | Liberal | PC | Green | NDP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angus Reid | 4 | -0.48 | -1.75 | +0.52 | -1.34 |
| Narrative Research | 13 | +1.74 | -0.09 | -0.73 | +1.00 |
| Porter O'Brien | 2 | +0.29 | +3.02 | -0.48 | – |
A positive figure means the house runs that party above the firms polling beside it, so the correction subtracts it. Only the houses polling this cycle are listed.